Myanmar 20240102

Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.

Jan 02, 2024

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Here is your Mekong Memo Myanmar for January 2, 2024. As always, your feedback is greatly appreciated.

Headlines:

Military On the Brink of Defeat?

Tipping Point Against Military Rule

A Turning Tide Against Military Rule

ASSK Forsaken, Not Forgotten

Registration Fees for Online Sales Businesses

Booming Garment Export Earnings

Revitalization of Myanmar-China Kyaukphyu Port

Nation Grappling with Unrest and Uncertainty

Decade of Change and Challenges in Banking

The top three stories this week are all very similar and represent an encouraging shift in momentum in the ongoing war in Myanmar. Normally we would summarize these articles under one heading, but as new is thin this week, we have broken each of them down for you.

Military On the Brink of Defeat?

Myanmar’s military, facing an unprecedented rebellion, is struggling to maintain control amid widespread resistance. The junta's political tactics have become increasingly ineffective, and they face growing opposition from ethnic armed organizations and civilians. The military's morale is at an all-time low, with losses mounting on several fronts and a general lack of willingness to fight. Ethnic armed forces are gaining ground, challenging the military's traditional divide-and-rule tactics. The National Unity Government and revolutionary forces are advocating unity against the military dictatorship, marking this revolt as potentially the last stand against Myanmar's enduring military rule.

Tipping Point Against Military Rule

Myanmar's civil war, intensifying since the military coup in February 2021, is increasingly favoring the rebels. Widespread resistance, combining pro-democracy activists, ethnic groups, and some defecting soldiers, has challenged the junta's authority. The conflict's persistence, driven by the rebels' guerrilla tactics and global support, undermines the military's control and isolates it internationally. The rebels' potential victory could inspire democratic movements in Southeast Asia and lead to inclusive governance in Myanmar. However, overcoming the military's resilience remains a significant challenge, necessitating continued international support and strategic diplomacy.

A Turning Tide Against Military Rule

In Myanmar, nearly three years of conflict between an illegitimate regime and a resilient population have led to significant shifts in power dynamics. The Brotherhood Alliance, along with other resistance groups, has successfully challenged the military's dominance, seizing numerous towns and bases. This series of defeats has exposed the military's vulnerabilities, previously perceived as an all-powerful force. Despite their superior weaponry, junta forces face demoralization and public disdain, with many soldiers surrendering without resistance. The people's determination and innovative tactics, evolving from makeshift weapons to drones, have been pivotal in this struggle. This resistance, largely unsupported internationally, is driven by a collective goal to end dictatorship and build a new future based on federal democracy, signaling a hopeful but challenging path ahead.

ASSK Forsaken, Not Forgotten

Aung San Suu Kyi, once hailed as a symbol of resistance against Myanmar's military junta, faces prolonged isolation in prison. Her arrest in 2021, following her defense of actions against the Rohingya minority, greatly diminished her global stature. Despite her fall from grace, Suu Kyi remains a beacon of hope for many in Myanmar. The military, fearing her influence, has levied multiple charges to extend her imprisonment. As Myanmar grapples with internal conflicts and external pressures, the possibility of peace talks and Suu Kyi's eventual triumph cannot be dismissed, reflecting the nation's complex and tumultuous journey towards democracy.

Registration Fees for Online Sales Businesses

Myanmar's Ministry of Commerce introduces a registration system for online sales businesses, effective January 1, 2024. The system, launched in November, sets fees for companies, SMEs, and individuals at 70,000, 50,000, and 30,000 kyats respectively. Registration is mandatory, with non-compliance leading to legal consequences. This initiative, part of the ministry's efforts to support the e-commerce sector, follows the issuance of e-commerce guidelines in September. Registrations are valid for two years, promoting regulated growth in Myanmar's digital marketplace.

Booming Garment Export Earnings

Myanmar has generated over $3.1 billion from finished garment exports in just over eight months, leading the country's foreign revenue. The garment industry, primarily operating under the cut-make-pack system, surpassed natural gas and black grams in export earnings. Major markets include Japan, Poland, Spain, and Germany, among others. This performance follows a fiscal year where Myanmar earned $5.3 billion from garment exports to over 100 countries, contributing significantly to the total export earnings of over $10.13 billion.

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