Myanmar 20240116

Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.

Jan 16, 2024

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Here is your Mekong Memo Myanmar for January 16, 2024. As always, your feedback is greatly appreciated.

Headlines:

Border Trade Plummets $100 Million Amid Conflict

Global Tin Market Waits on Key Myanmar Mine

Fragile Ceasefire Offers a Tenuous Respite

India's Secret Fuel Exports to Myanmar Military

Thai and Myanmar Military Leaders Discuss Cooperation

Press Council Demands Journalist Releases

Ngapali Beach Resort Crushed by Circumstance

Myanmar Emerges as Leading Opium Producer Post-Coup

India Recalibrates Myanmar Strategy

Self-Determination in Post-War Myanmar

China Charges Ahead With Deep Sea Port

Prolonged Conflict A Multifaceted Civil War

Now is the Time for Meaningful Policy

Border Trade Plummets $100 Million Amid Conflict

Myanmar's border trade has plummeted over $100 million between April-December 2022 compared to 2021 due to conflicts and border closures with China, Thailand, Bangladesh, India and Laos. Key trade hubs like Muse, Myawaddy and Rihkhawdar face heavy impacts from military offensives and blockades, including reduced exports, spoiled shipments and higher transportation costs. The situation has prompted Myanmar's junta leader to consider reopening roads to resuscitate trade.

Global Tin Market Waits on Key Myanmar Mine

The suspension of Myanmar's major Man Maw tin mine by the Wa State Army has minimally impacted the global tin market so far, thanks to stockpiling by Chinese smelters. With London Metal Exchange (LME) tin prices still stable, attention is on the mine's reopening to meet rising soldering demand. The International Tin Association (ITA) reports slow progress on resuming full mining operations, with surface tin stocks nearly gone and China relying more on alternate suppliers like Bolivia. Strong expected tin demand recovery in 2024 adds urgency.

Fragile Ceasefire Offers a Tenuous Respite

China recently brokered a tenuous ceasefire between Myanmar's military and the rebel "Three Brotherhood Alliance." The ceasefire aims to improve security around the China-Myanmar border area and bilateral economic ties, including the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. It mandates immediate halting of hostilities and troop pullback, with both sides agreeing to protect Chinese residents and projects in Myanmar. However, given the history of rapidly collapsing truces in Myanmar, observers remain uncertain if the ceasefire will hold.

Read more: Financial Times (Details), Tamil Guardian (Summary), The Tribune India (Confirmation), Global Times (Chinese View), The Nation (ASEAN Envoy Meeting)

India's Secret Fuel Exports to Myanmar Military

Since Myanmar's 2021 coup, India's state-owned oil company has covertly sold over $3.7 million in fuel, including $1.5 million in navy-grade diesel, to an opaque Myanmar entity known as "The Master." While tiny compared to India's $284 million Myanmar fuel exports since 2017, the sales - especially the navy diesel - have raised concerns about enabling Myanmar's sanctioned military. Despite prohibitions on military suppliers, India maintains trade ties, which makes already complex regional dynamics all the more opaque.

Thai and Myanmar Military Leaders Discuss Cooperation

Thailand’s military chief recently engaged in discussions with Myanmar's junta leader on potential cooperation against online gambling and scams, drug eradication, counter-terrorism, illegal trade, and stability in border areas. They also reportedly discussed humanitarian assistance and joint efforts to address forest fires and haze in border regions. The rare high-level meeting comes despite ASEAN minimizing contacts with Myanmar’s government after its 2021 coup.

Read more: The Irrawaddy (Cooperation), Thai PBS World (Stability)

Press Council Demands Journalist Releases

The Independent Press Council Myanmar (IPCM) has called for the immediate release of all journalists jailed by the military junta since the 2021 coup. With 52 currently imprisoned out of 170 arrested over 2 years, the council remains dedicated to achieving journalists' unconditional freedom. IPCM's statement specifically highlighted the case of detained filmmaker Ma Shin Daewi to showcase the nature of arbitrary arrests and emphasized that they remain committed to the safeguarding of journalistic freedom.

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