Myanmar 20240213

Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.

Feb 13, 2024

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Here is your Mekong Memo Myanmar for February 13, 2024. As always, your feedback and paid subscriptions are very much appreciated.

Headlines:

Military Desperately Tries to Replenish Ranks

Japan Urged to Step Up on Deepening Crisis

Communist Party Finds Unlikely New Life

China's Role Under Scrutiny in Bangladesh

Junta Leadership Under Fire

Australia Balances Engagement and Restraint

Crime Corridor Breeds Conflict and Greed

Military Elite’s Empire Beyond the Battlefield

Thai-US Talks Target Myanmar Crisis

Thailand Initiates Aid Corridor

UN: Myanmar Faces Massive Humanitarian Crisis

Digital Dictatorship Suppresses Freedoms

Shift from Opium to Coffee Offers Fresh Start

Military Desperately Tries to Replenish Ranks

Myanmar's military is so desperate to crush armed resistance that they've dusted off a decades-old conscription law. They're forcing men 18-45 and women 18-35 to serve for up to five years. This move screams of manpower shortages and shrinking public support. It'll likely backfire, fueling further opposition and growing the refugee crisis. Plus, it opens doors for corruption and youth exploitation.

Read more: AP News (Conscription Activation), The Times of India (Mandatory Service), The Business Standard (Youth Impact), The Irrawaddy (Detailed Analysis)

Japan Urged to Step Up on Deepening Crisis

Three years post-coup, the crisis rages on. Despite rising clashes with pro-democracy forces, the junta maintains its grip, backed by foreign weapons. While the US and UK clamp down financially, Japan seems AWOL. With more than 4,400 dead and 2.6 million displaced, calls are growing in Japan for more aid and serious actions toward restoring democracy.

Communist Party Finds Unlikely New Life

Talk about drastic changes: Myanmar’s political chaos has youth joining the once-fading Communist Party of Burma’s armed wing in droves. After the junta’s violent protest crackdown, these young fighters now see communism as a path to democracy and freedom. Could this relic of the past help determine Myanmar’s future?

China's Role Under Scrutiny in Bangladesh

As violence escalates, the conflict’s impacts reach Bangladesh too, with refugees flooding across the border. But all eyes are looking to China, Myanmar’s foremost trade partner and investor. With deep ties and strategic interests at play, how China chooses to broker peace or flex its influence remains pivotal in fragile regional dynamics.

Junta Leadership Under Fire

Cracks are showing in the Junta’s rule. Dissent and battlefield failures are sparking calls for the senior general to resign, while talks with the unity government signal that concessions may come. With cohesion faltering and the economy in shambles, the regime’s days seem numbered. Could a leadership change pave the road to democracy?

Australia Balances Engagement and Restraint

Despite continual political shifts and crises in Myanmar, Australia persists in engagement, aiming to spur reform through trade, building capacity, and targeted sanctions. Though challenges arise, the pragmatic Aussie approach is staying focused on supporting the potential for stability and democracy down the line.

Crime Corridor Breeds Conflict and Greed

Postponed repatriations highlight the junta’s mess: losing militarily while relying on shady border dealings and foreign support, especially from China, to cling to power. This chaos nurtures the perfect habitat for refugee crises, civilian scams, cross-border violence and more. And the regime readily taps regional corruption and politics to survive.

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