Myanmar 20240416: Upheaval, Backfire, Anguish

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Here is your Mekong Memo this week for Myanmar. As always, your feedback and paid subscriptions are very much appreciated and help support us to continue keeping you informed.

Headlines:

Myanmar Crisis Low on SEA’s Worry List

Unease Over China's Clout Grows

Myawaddy Falls to Anti-Junta Forces

Conscription Drives Youth to Rebel Groups

Doubts Over ASEAN Crisis Management

Julie Bishop Named UN Special Envoy

Leaders Overlook Myanmar at Trilateral Meeting

Thailand Pushes for Humanitarian Corridor

Labor Shortage as Youth Flee Conscription

Power and Peril of the Word "Rohingya"

Humanitarian Look at Northern Rakhine

Puzzling Uranium Enigma

Landmines Shatter Lives and Futures

ASSK Held in Solitary Confinement

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Myanmar Crisis Low on SEA’s Worry List

The 2024 State of Southeast Asia survey shows that the Myanmar crisis ranks low among Southeast Asia's concerns, overshadowed by fears of recession, climate change, and major power tensions. Fewer than one in three people call it a top-three worry, a sharp contrast to global views. The survey also reveals China and the US's growing regional influence, with China seen as the top strategic and economic partner despite trust issues. (Also see next article)

Read more: The Diplomat (Regional Indifference), ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute (Survey Insights)

Unease Over China's Clout Grows

An ISP Myanmar survey shows rising concern among the people of Myanmar about China's economic and political sway. While some see China as an important (necessary, even) partner, many worry about growing dependence, especially after the 2021 coup. Criticism focuses on China's pragmatic approach and the contentious China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, with fears of over-reliance and impacts on local governance and sovereignty.

Read more: Mizzima

Myawaddy Falls to Anti-Junta Forces

Anti-junta forces, including the Karen National Union and People's Defence Force, have seized the strategically important town of Myawaddy, just over the border from Thailand’s Tak Province. The seizure has disrupted Myanmar's administrative and military presence, forcing some soldiers and civilians to flee into Thailand. The battles have caused regional instability, prompting increased security and humanitarian concerns in Thailand, which faces a refugee influx and broader implications of Myanmar's problems. In the Economist story, a correspondent spent three days with a rebel group to report on the situation.

Read more: Mizzima (Myawaddy Seized), Investing (Battle Dynamics), The Diplomat (Local Impact), Financial Times (Insurgency Context), Pearls and Irritations (Regional Control), Khaosod English (Thai Response), The Economist (Embedded with Rebels)

Conscription Drives Youth to Rebel Groups

The announced military conscription has backfired, driving hundreds of young people to join rebel groups like the People's Defence Force (PDF). Fearing forced service under harsh conditions, many are fleeing to insurgent ranks, swelling their numbers. This has catalyzed resistance across the country, undermining the junta's control over contested areas.

Read more: Yahoo News (Conscription), DW (Growing Opposition: Video)

Doubts Over ASEAN Crisis Management

ASEAN's ability to handle the Myanmar conflict under Laos' chairmanship is seeing more skepticism. The troika mechanism, meant to strengthen Laos' leadership, hasn't reduced worries of a too-passive approach. Laos' hesitance and ASEAN's avoidance of strong actions against the junta are indicative of the familiar regional reluctance to intervene. There is also some concern that China's influence over Laos due to debt may prioritize economic interests over humanitarian issues.

Read more: The National Interest