Myanmar 20240430: Labyrinth, Turbulence, Tug-of-war

Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.

Apr 30, 2024

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Here is your Mekong Memo this week for Myanmar. As always, your feedback and paid subscriptions are very much appreciated and help support us to continue keeping you informed.

Headlines:

China's Myanmar Play: Big Bucks, Small Wins

Myanmar: Rare Shot at US-China Cooperation?

Junta Cries Foul Over US Aid "Terrorism"

Opposition to China: Stop Arming the Junta

Rebels Close in on Kyaukphyu

Who’s Winning? It’s Complicated.

Economic Freefall, Military Mismanagement

Blurred Battle Lines as Resistance Escalates

Resistance United, Military Divided

Rethinking the Aid Playbook

Vice President Steps Down Due to Health

Rebels Gain Ground as Resistance Endures

Salvage Divers Using the Moon at Work

Seeking Relief in City Parks

China's Myanmar Play: Big Bucks, Small Wins

China's post-coup dealings with Myanmar's junta have been a costly headache with little to show for it. Despite pouring money into projects like the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, political chaos has put them all on shaky ground. China's peace talks have gone nowhere, and anti-China sentiment in Myanmar is on the rise. Recent military ops, seen as having China's quiet nod, have only made things worse for Beijing as it tries to protect its interests amid the ongoing mess.

Myanmar: Rare Shot at US-China Cooperation?

The Myanmar crisis is a curveball for US-China relations, with both sides having different priorities in the region. China's big economic stakes make it tread carefully, while the US pushes for solutions that back democracy. They sometimes see eye to eye, like on curbing violence, which could open the door to limited cooperation. But the tangled geopolitical web makes any joint efforts a tall order, calling for a delicate dance to tackle both humanitarian issues and strategic interests.

Junta Cries Foul Over US Aid "Terrorism"

The ruling junta is up in arms over a US aid package aimed at backing pro-democracy groups, calling it potential support for terrorism. The aid, part of the BURMA Act under the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act, is meant to support democratic forces in Myanmar by giving nonlethal help to groups like the National Unity Government and the People's Defense Force. The junta says the US is just trying to counter China's clout in the region and wants the US to rethink its moves.

Opposition to China: Stop Arming the Junta

Zin Mar Aung, foreign minister of Myanmar's opposition National Unity Government (NUG), has publicly called on China to stop selling arms to Myanmar's ruling junta, saying they're being used against civilians. Despite reaching out officially to Beijing, the NUG has gotten nothing more than radio silence in return. The NUG sees any support for the junta as being complicit in the regime's violence against the people. This plea comes as conflicts escalate and the NUG leans more on military tactics like drone strikes to pressure the junta

Rebels Close in on Kyaukphyu

The Arakan Army's gains in Myanmar are now threatening some big Chinese investments in Rakhine State. The rebels have closed in on Kyaukphyu, home to important oil and gas infrastructure crucial to both Myanmar's economy and China's energy security. This raises concerns about the stability of China's Belt and Road Initiative projects in the area, potentially disrupting a vital route for oil and gas imports to China and hitting the junta's main revenue streams.

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