Myanmar 20240618: Revelatory, Incendiary, Labyrinthine

Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.

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Here is your Mekong Memo this week for Myanmar. As always, your feedback and paid subscriptions are very much appreciated and help support us to continue keeping you informed.

Headlines:

Tactics to Stem Military's Access to Foreign Cash

Junta Chief Promises 2025 Election

World Bank Paints Bleak Economic Picture

Junta Extorting Money from VPN Users

Junta Chief Purges Senior Military Officers

Rebels Arrested After Assassination Plot

Soaring Cost of Living Stifles Growth Prospects

Power Outages Persist Despite Solar Adoption

Economy in Turmoil as Civil Conflict Endures

Thai FM Prioritizes Resolving Myanmar Conflict

Floating Clinics to Provide Health Services

ASSK’s Family Says Three Years Without Contact

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Tactics to Stem Military's Access to Foreign Cash

The ruling military still has good access to foreign exchange despite sanctions, through gas exports, junta-linked businesses, and undervalued official exchange rates. New strategies that go beyond traditional sanctions are needed, like trade and finance facilitation which remain outside the regime's control. Supporting democratic resistance and regional cooperation could reduce the military's financial power without broad embargoes which have so far seemed ineffective at meeting their objectives.

Read more: FULCRUM

Junta Chief Promises 2025 Election

Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing says he plans to hold a general election in 2025 if peace and stability are achieved. With the conflict ongoing with no end in sight and the government continuing to lose territory, pulling it off will be a tall order. Even the idea of getting a census done and voter lists prepared by October 2024 seems unlikely. Critics say any election under current conditions would be neither legitimate nor fair.

Read more: The Irrawaddy

World Bank Paints Bleak Economic Picture

The World Bank's latest report paints a grim picture of Myanmar's economy, hit hard by ongoing civil conflict and political instability. They predict a sharp drop in economic growth, rising poverty, and major hurdles in attracting foreign investment. The dire forecast is no surprise, given the pressing need for political resolution and effective governance to stabilize the economy and improve living conditions for long-suffering citizens.

Read more: The Irrawaddy

Junta Extorting Money from VPN Users

The junta is ramping up a crackdown on VPN usage, extorting money from citizens in big cities who are caught with virtual private network (VPN) software on their phones. Junta soldiers are reportedly inspecting phones and fining VPN users up to 300,000 kyat. It is unclear how much this effort is a result of an increasing need to control internet access and suppress information and how much is a result of squeezing money out of people.

Read more: Mizzima (Extortion), RFA (Crackdown)