Myanmar 20240730: Fragile, Complex, Persistent
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Headlines:
Diplomats Dance with Delusion
Presidential Power Grab Brings Constitutional Concerns
Thailand Reluctantly Peeks into its Banking Closet
Junta Blocks Google and Signal
Gas Shortage Fuels Economic Woes
Orwell's Ghost Haunts Myanmar
Covid-19 Restrictions Finally Lifted
Can BIMSTEC Address Myanmar's Crisis?
Green Tea Fuels Resistance
China's Strategic Interest in an Electoral Crisis
Resistance Leader on Future of the Spring Revolution
Economy Plunges Deeper into Crisis
Legal Isolation Challenges International Accountability
Honoring the Legacy of James C. Scott
Diplomats Dance with Delusion
In Myanmar's ever-shifting political landscape, diplomats and international experts find themselves trapped in a bubble of outdated perceptions. Clinging to the belief that the military regime holds the key to stability, these well-intentioned individuals overlook a mounting pile of evidence to the contrary. While the junta's mismanagement shows a clear picture of ineptitude, diplomatic circles appear to remain fixated on the specter of fragmentation in case the revolution succeeds. This detachment from reality ignores the growing strength and unity of ethnic resistance organizations and People's Defense Forces. As the diplomatic community stubbornly refuses to envision a junta-free Myanmar, they risk finding themselves woefully unprepared for the regime's potential collapse.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Presidential Power Grab Brings Constitutional Concerns
In a move that surprises no one, Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has declared himself acting president. This latest power grab comes as Myint Swe, the previous acting president, finds himself indisposed for medical treatment. Critics argue this self-appointment highlights Min Aung Hlaing's disregard for constitutional limits and democratic norms. Political analysts are unsurprisingly predicting yet another extension of emergency rule.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Power grab defense), RFA (Acting presidency)
Thailand Reluctantly Peeks into its Banking Closet
In a move that has raised eyebrows across Southeast Asia, Thailand is establishing a task force to investigate its financial institutions' involvement in transactions that have helped Myanmar's junta acquire weapons. This decision follows a UN report that cast an unflattering spotlight on Thailand as a supplier of military equipment to Myanmar through its banking system. The task force, comprised of the Bank of Thailand and the Anti-Money Laundering Office, is said to enhance financial institutions' due diligence and prevent further arms funding, but one cannot help but wonder if this is a genuine change of heart or merely a hasty attempt to sweep dirt under a new rug.
Read more: RFA (Arms financing), The Irrawaddy (Weapons payments probe), Asia Financial (Task force formation)
Junta Blocks Google and Signal
In its latest attempt to control the flow of information, Myanmar's regime has blocked access to Google and the Signal messaging app. This move further constricts secure communication channels in the country, disrupting coordination between resistance groups. Signal, popular for its encryption features, had been a lifeline for journalists, activists, and anti-regime forces. With VPNs already banned, accessing these platforms has become increasingly difficult, increasing risks and communication delays. As the digital noose tightens, tech-savvy dissidents find themselves in a game of whack-a-mole with the junta's censors.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Signal block), RFA (Google block)
Gas Shortage Fuels Economic Woes
Myanmar finds itself in the grips of a severe gas shortage, a predicament made worse by the depletion of its Yadana gas field. Domestic gas production has plummeted, cutting electricity generation by more than a third. China's state-owned COOEC has won a $523 million contract to expand the Shwe gas project off Myanmar's west coast, hoping to boost exports to China while Myanmar’s own citizens struggle to keep the lights on.
Read more: RFA (Gas Prices and Supply), The Diplomat (Analysis), Myanmar Now (Shwe Project Expansion)
Orwell's Ghost Haunts Myanmar
Myanmar's current state draws unsettling parallels to George Orwell's 1984, minus the fashion sense. The junta has tightened its grip on information, using surveillance and facial recognition to tamp down dissent. The country's historical distrust of Western powers and continued manipulation of ethnic divisions echo the lingering shadows of British colonialism. Despite these dystopian conditions, a strong resistance movement persists, a glimmer of hope against the junta's rule. As Myanmar teeters on the edge of becoming Orwell's most faithful adaptation, the international community's role remains important in supporting democratic efforts and addressing human rights abuses.
Read more: The Business Standard
Covid-19 Restrictions Finally Lifted
Myanmar has lifted all Covid-19 entry restrictions as of July 8, 2024, in a bid to resuscitate its ailing tourism sector. The removal of these measures comes as the country grapples with the challenges of trying to pull in international visitors while managing ongoing political instability. The iconic temple city of Bagan, a UNESCO World Heritage site, remains a ghost town, with businesses shuttered and locals struggling to make ends meet. As Myanmar throws open its doors, the question remains whether tourists will rush in or continue to give the troubled nation a wide berth.
Read more: Travel Weekly Asia (Covid-19 Restrictions Lifted), The Express Tribune (Tourism Challenges)
Can BIMSTEC Address Myanmar's Crisis?
BIMSTEC, a regional organization with a newly adopted charter, finds itself thrust into the role of potential peacemaker in Myanmar's war. With members like India, Thailand, and Bangladesh, BIMSTEC can help to tackle transnational crime made worse by the war. Recent meetings have seen discussions on Rohingya repatriation and regional peace, suggesting BIMSTEC might offer solutions where ASEAN has stumbled. As Myanmar's neighbors ponder their next move, improved collaboration within BIMSTEC and with ASEAN could help address the political and humanitarian challenges in the beleaguered nation.
Read more: Lowy Institute
Green Tea Fuels Resistance
The Loikaw People's Defense Force (PDF) has launched "Rebels" green tea to fund their armed resistance against the junta. The project was founded to to provide a sustainable income as reliance on donations wanes. The tea, sourced from southern Shan State, has been so far well-received, especially among the Myanmar diaspora in Thailand, Singapore, Australia, Dubai, the UK, and South Korea. As the PDF brews up trouble for the junta, one wonders how long it will take for the military to label this leafy insurgency as an act of "terrorism."
Read more: The Irrawaddy
China's Strategic Interest in an Electoral Crisis
With Myanmar's state of emergency nearing its end (for the moment), China has continued diplomatic talks with Myanmar's junta leaders, possibly with an eye to influencing upcoming elections. The Chinese Communist Party recently hosted representatives from four pro-junta political parties. The junta, facing international isolation and internal resistance, sees China as a crucial ally. For China, a stable but isolated Myanmar under military rule ensures a buffer and a partner less susceptible to Western influence, serving its regional geopolitical interests. As Beijing continues its balancing act, is it playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers?
Read more: The Diplomat
Resistance Leader on Future of the Spring Revolution
Dr. Tayzar San, a prominent anti-coup activist, recently returned to Mandalay to call for a coordinated people's movement alongside military resistance. He spoke specifically on the importance of unity among revolutionary forces and the need for a balanced approach involving political, military, and grassroots efforts. Dr. Tayzar San emphasized the interim period before achieving a true federal union and shared concerns about the junta's planned elections, viewing them as a strategy to prolong military rule. As the resistance continues to evolve, the question remains whether this spring revolution will bloom or wither on the vine.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Economy Plunges Deeper into Crisis
Myanmar's economy continues its impressive impersonation of a dumpster fire under the State Administration Council (SAC)'s coercive economic policies. The World Bank forecasts a flaccid 1% GDP growth, with economic output remaining 9% below pre-COVID-19 levels. The kyat's value has been crushed, and the SAC's manipulation of foreign exchange policies has led to significant arbitrage opportunities, further harming the economy. As the SAC's militarization and crackdown on economic activities create severe challenges, businesses and citizens alike find themselves caught between inflation and scarcity.
Read more: Fulcrum
Legal Isolation Challenges International Accountability
Despite severe human rights abuses by Myanmar's junta since the coup, international legal mechanisms remain largely unused. Unlike quick actions in the Ukraine and Palestine crises, no significant cases have been pursued against Myanmar's military regime. The complex internal conflict, lack of Myanmar's engagement with international treaties, and geopolitical factors, including the influence of China and Russia, are holding back legal accountability. As Myanmar slips further into legal isolation, the international community finds itself in a quandary, wondering how to address human rights violations through international law when the usual playbook appears ineffective.
Read more: East Asia Forum
And now for something completely different.
While the focus of The Memo is on news for business (although in the case of Myanmar the biggest issue is the ongoing war, of course), we often wrap with a less business-focused article.
Honoring the Legacy of James C. Scott
James C. Scott, a renowned scholar and advocate for Southeast Asian studies, passed away on July 19, at his home in the United States at the age of 87. A Yale professor, Scott profoundly influenced anthropology and political science with his works, such as "The Art of Not Being Governed." Despite his radical views, Scott was deeply engaged with Myanmar, supporting local scholars and activists, and raising funds for the Civil Disobedience Movement. His dedication to the people of Myanmar and their culture left a lasting impact, ensuring his legacy will endure beyond academia. As Myanmar continues its struggle for democracy, Scott's insights into resistance and governance remain as relevant as ever.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar, The Irrawaddy
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