Myanmar 20241119: Munificent, Gossamer, Superlunary
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Restrained U.S. Strategy on China and Myanmar
Junta Faces Exclusion from Military Meetings
Rakhine State Faces Humanitarian Catastrophe
Junta Targets Migrant Workers for Military Service
China and Myanmar Explore Joint Security Company
Border Trade Restrictions Strain Residents
Junta Crack Down on Passports Renewed Abroad
Civilians Caught in Escalating Conflict
Women Bear Brunt of Conflict and Floods
Myanmar's Military Intelligence Mindset
International Actors Fueling Myanmar's Civil War
Brave Journalists Persist Despite Pressure
Bamar Armed Group Eyes Central Myanmar
Opposition Gains Unlikely to Sway China
Satellite Internet Connects Amid Blackouts
Supermoon Rises Over Naypyitaw
Restrained U.S. Strategy on China and Myanmar
The incoming Trump administration faces daunting challenges on the global stage, but a restrained strategy focusing on empowering allies to counter China's assertive actions could prove effective. Supporting Myanmar's democratic forces against the military junta offers a low-cost, high-reward opportunity to neutralize China's influence in Southeast Asia. By recognizing the National Unity Government, delivering aid, and enforcing sanctions, the U.S. can improve regional security, promote democracy, and signal its wishes for balance in the region.
Read more: Eurasia Review
Junta Faces Exclusion from Military Meetings
As the Myanmar junta's crackdown continues, ASEAN is seeing pressure to exclude the military from upcoming defense ministers' meetings. Civil society organizations have called on participating ministers to either bar the junta or boycott the event if they are allowed to attend. While ASEAN has shown some willingness to sideline the junta in military settings, the bloc's commitment to non-intervention in domestic affairs complicates its response to the current crisis.
Read more: Myanmar Now
Rakhine State Faces Humanitarian Catastrophe
Rakhine State is on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe as the Arakan Army (AA) battles to seize control from the military junta. The year-long offensive has displaced more than half a million people, and the restricted environment is hobbling international aid efforts. The conflict has increased the burden on the AA to provide protection and aid, while also making the repatriation of Rohingya refugees from Bangladesh even more perilous.
Read more: Asia Times
Junta Targets Migrant Workers for Military Service
The junta is preparing to recall overseas workers for mandatory military service, telling employment agencies to enforce the rule. Under a new clause in work contracts, employees must return to Myanmar if called for military duty after their two-year permit expires. Prior to the ban, more than 4 million Myanmar nationals worked abroad, with Thailand a top destination.
Read more: Mizzima (Recall Order), Myanmar Now (Contract Clause)
China and Myanmar Explore Joint Security Company
China has proposed establishing a joint security company with Myanmar's military junta to ensure the safety of Chinese projects and personnel in the country. The junta has formed a working committee to prepare a memorandum of understanding for the company, which would handle the importation of weapons and special equipment. The move is indicative of China's shift toward more direct support for the junta as it continues to look for ways to protect its assets and infrastructure projects.
Read more: The Diplomat
Border Trade Restrictions Strain Residents
Residents in northern Myanmar are facing shortages of food and supplies as China imposes restrictions on small-scale, informal trade along the border. The closures, centered on three crossings in the town of Muse, have resulted in price hikes for gasoline and rice. More than 2 million people in northern Shan state rely on Chinese goods, and the trade disruptions are adding to the hardships.
Read more: Mizzima (Trade Restrictions), Mizzima (Border Gate Closures)
Junta Crack Down on Passports Renewed Abroad
The junta has announced it will cancel passports renewed "illegally" in South Korea, part of its efforts to force citizens to return home to face the possibility of military conscription. The announcement targets passports renewed at the representative office of the government-in-exile, the National Unity Government (NUG), in Seoul. The junta-appointed embassy in South Korea warned that passports renewed through the NUG would be invalidated and their holders blacklisted.
Read more: Radio Free Asia
Civilians Caught in Escalating Conflict
Civilians are increasingly caught in the crossfire between the military junta and opposition forces. The level of armed conflict is only growing, with ethnic armed groups and People's Defense Forces capturing territory outside the center of the country. The junta's response, including airstrikes on civilian areas, is causing civilian deaths and displacing hundreds of thousands. Reported crimes by opposition forces are also a growing concern.
Read more: United Nations (audio)
Women Bear Brunt of Conflict and Floods
Women and girls in Myanmar are facing the compounding crises of conflict and severe flooding. According to a UN Women report, of the more than 1 million people affected by floods, 6 in 10 are women and girls. Displaced women in crowded shelters are at heightened risk of gender-based violence, and access to clean water and sanitation is a growing concern. Funding remains a significant constraint in responding to the humanitarian emergency.
Read more: Mizzima
Myanmar's Military Intelligence Mindset
Two former intelligence officers from Myanmar's previous military regimes recently met with Chinese think tanks close to the government, offering a peek into the mindset of the country's secretive intelligence apparatus. The meetings, which took place just before junta leader Min Aung Hlaing's visit to Yunnan, suggest a level of coordination between the Myanmar military and China. The intelligence officers' involvement also shows that the military's hardline factions have enduring influence.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
International Actors Fueling Myanmar's Civil War
As the war drags on, questions are being raised about which international actors are helping to fuel the conflict. While China has the biggest influence and most complicated role, Russia has apparently sided with the junta, reportedly supplying arms to help crush the opposition. Other international players have little sway with either side and minimal impact on the ground. China's response to the opposition's battlefield victories will be crucial in shaping the conflict's trajectory.
Read more: Pearls and Irritations
Brave Journalists Persist Despite Pressure
Journalists continue to report on the military junta's abuses despite immense pressure and danger. Since the 2021 coup, at least five journalists have been killed and as many as 64 imprisoned by the regime. Thousands have fled to resistance-held areas or abroad, where they remain committed to publishing news about the country. Those who have stayed in conflict zones face the constant threat of arrest, torture, and execution.
Read more: The Diplomat
Bamar Armed Group Eyes Central Myanmar
The Bamar People's Liberation Army (BPLA), an ethnic Bamar armed group, is planning to establish a presence in central Myanmar after gaining combat experience in Karen and Shan states. The group, which formed three years ago, says it intends to build up an army and weaponry to fight the junta. The BPLA says it will not run a parallel government in opposition to the National Unity Government (NUG), but rather is committed to providing military support and sharing responsibility with local People's Defense Forces.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Opposition Gains Unlikely to Sway China
Despite the military regime's weakening grip and battlefield losses to opposition forces over the past year, China appears unwilling to abandon its support for the junta. Beijing has pressured anti-regime groups and cut off supplies to resistance-held border areas, throwing the junta a lifeline. While some groups like the Kachin Independence Army and Arakan Army remain undeterred, the opposition's victories are unlikely to fundamentally alter China's stance as it prioritizes stability and its economic interests in Myanmar.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Satellite Internet Connects Amid Blackouts
As the junta imposes heavy-handed internet restrictions, rebel commanders, medics, and even scammers are turning to Elon Musk's Starlink satellite service to stay connected. The regime has banned Starlink, but with more than 300 shutdowns since the coup and nearly a quarter of townships now offline, demand for the service is growing. Smugglers are bringing Starlink units across the Thai border, and the Myanmar Internet Project estimates more than 3,000 dishes are now active in the country. The satellites provide a lifeline for those in conflict zones and opposition-held areas.
Read more: Voice of America
Supermoon Rises Over Naypyitaw
We close this week with a very simple, but short, and beautiful b-roll video from Associated Press showing the recent full moon over Naypyidaw.
Watch: YouTube
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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