Myanmar 20241217: Epistemological, Aesthetic, Telling
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Territory Lost as Civil War Intensifies
Humanitarian Crisis Deepens
Chemical Agents Used in Drone Strikes
US Expands Sanctions Net
Thailand Hosts ASEAN Crisis Talks
Economy Contracting From Natural Disasters
China Deepens Investment Protection
Forced Meth Use Among Soldiers
Education System in Tatters
Communities Address Trauma Together
Disabled Population Faces Mounting Challenges
ICC Puts Military Leadership in the Crosshairs
Territory Lost as Civil War Intensifies
Opposition forces continue seizing control of major outposts and other strategic locations. The Arakan Army's latest win tightens their grip in Rakhine State, while ethnic forces have apprehended a high-profile general in Maungdaw. Reports indicate declining troop morale and weakening support for frontline units. As conflict edges closer to the capital, Min Aung Hlaing's regime is battling internal chaos and disarray. The junta has floated plans for 2025 elections with international observers, though critics see this as a bid for legitimacy as they face diminishing control over the situation.
Read more: Goa Chronicle (territorial control), Irrawaddy (general's capture), RFA (troop morale), MSN (election plans), Eurasia Review (leadership struggles)
Humanitarian Crisis Deepens
Food insecurity is reaching critical levels as the junta is reportedly hiding data and intimidating aid groups. UN projections are showing a 30% increase in internally displaced people by 2025, reaching a figure as high as five and a half million people. The economy is still in chaos with soaring inflation impacting small businesses and hampering delivery of essential services. Aid organizations report restricted access and growing needs across conflict zones.
Read more: Yahoo News (data suppression), Nikkei Asia (displacement forecast), Reuters (hunger crisis), UN News (aid requirements)
Chemical Agents Used in Drone Strikes
Military operations have incorporated drone technology with alleged chemical agents, an alarming turn of events, if found to be true. The shift toward aerial assaults is intended to minimize ground troop deployment but increases civilian risk. Thousands of families are facing displacement as ethnic regions see heightened aerial activity. Important story to watch as the Junta tries to keep a grip.
Read more: RFA (drone operations), BNI Online (chemical weapons allegations)
US Expands Sanctions Net
Fresh sanctions targeting individuals and firms supporting the military regime have been announced, mostly focusing on Russian entities supplying weapons. The U.S. Treasury has said that external support remains crucial for the junta’s operations against civilian populations.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Thailand Hosts ASEAN Crisis Talks
Foreign ministers will gather this week to discuss regional reintegration and implications of the 2021 coup. Meetings are expected to emphasize dialogue and cooperation while focusing on security, economic partnerships, and humanitarian concerns. The talks are expected to breathe new life into ASEAN's five-point consensus plan and identify new strategies for regional stability. Thailand's role is a sign of increased regional engagement in crisis resolution.
Read more: Strat News Global (meeting agenda), Bangkok Post (Thai initiative), Devdiscourse (ASEAN strategy), Fides News (regional role)
Economy Contracting From Natural Disasters
World Bank reports indicate the environment is causing economic contraction as floods and fighting disrupt agriculture and trade. Food insecurity is getting worse with disrupted supply chains and limited resource access. International aid faces delivery challenges and experts are calling for domestic and international interventions to stabilize the economy.
Read more: AP (flooding impact), Devdiscourse (economic challenges), Irrawaddy (World Bank analysis)
China Deepens Investment Protection
A joint security company formed with military authorities is intended to protect Chinese investments, particularly along the Economic Corridor. The company’s formation is a sign of continued Chinese support in Myanmar despite opposition gains. The arrangement risks potential clashes with Western interests and regional neighbors, while ASEAN maintains cautious observation.
Read more: Geopolitical Monitor (investment risks), The Jakarta Post (security concerns), China Global South (regional influence)
Forced Meth Use Among Soldiers
Captured soldiers are apparently saying that they have been coerced into methamphetamine use to maintain alertness and desensitize themselves to violence. The allegations come alongside reports of widespread and growing drug production in military-controlled regions. Eighteen percent of regional meth seizures in 2023 originated from the Golden Triangle.
Read more: The Independent
Education System in Tatters
Schools are facing shutdowns or military repurposing while teacher shortages remain a big problem. The crisis is threatening to create a "lost generation," hampering future recovery and development prospects for the entire nation. International organizations are warning of long-term implications for national development and social stability.
Read more: East Asia Forum
Communities Address Trauma Together
Local organizations are leading psychological support initiatives through workshops, counseling, and support groups. These grassroots efforts are expected to prevent anxiety, depression, and PTSD while building resilience and solidarity in the community. Programs are focused on creating safe spaces for sharing experiences and building community support networks.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar
Disabled Population Faces Mounting Challenges
Healthcare access is getting worse (again!) as caregivers are trying to manage economic hardships. Rising prices and medicine shortages are especially a problem in conflict zones, where blockades strain medical supply lines. The disabled community, apparently nearly 13% of the population, faces setbacks in livelihood, education, and employment opportunities.
Read more: BNI
ICC Puts Military Leadership in the Crosshairs
The International Criminal Court is redoubling efforts to hold Myanmar’s military leaders accountable for alleged crimes against humanity. Prosecutor Karim Khan is pressing for adherence to international law while investigating reported violations. The global community is expecting further accountability measures to be put into place as violence and displacement reportedly continue.
Read more: VOA News (ICC statement), The Conversation (legal analysis), RFA (international response)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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