Myanmar 20250121: Bereft, Debasing, Conflicted
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
Southeast Asian business news delivered to your inbox every weekday with the Mekong Memo.
The Memo is published each weekday for the countries of your choice. Paid subscriptions receive full editions while free subscribers usually only get top headlines and the first few stories. We can’t do this without your support, so please consider a paid subscription.
The Mekong Memo is proudly presented by:
Horton International is your premier partner for executive search in Southeast Asia. Whether you're a small startup or a global corporation, our reliable and effective recruiting solutions are tailored to meet your unique needs. With extensive experience and offices across the region, we excel at overcoming recruitment challenges and securing top talent for your organization.
Click here to learn how Horton can make your life easier.
Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
If you appreciate the work that goes into preparing The Memo (and the time it saves you!), please consider a paid subscription to support our efforts. Thank you.
Headlines:
Border Crisis Threatens Security and Tourism
Junta Control Wanes as Population Plummets
Migrant Amnesty Program Expensive, Dangerous
ASEAN Places Ceasefire Ahead of Elections
China Balances Interests in Myanmar Crisis
Healthcare System Collapse Threatens Disease Control
Digital Control Tightens Under New Cyber Law
Japanese Retailer Withdraws Defamation Lawsuit
Karen Forces Secure Base as Junta Decline Continues
Conscription Drive Creates Economic Divide
Border Trade Power Shifts to Ethnic Armed Groups
Russian Energy Project Advances
ASEAN Visa Integration Challenged
Border Crisis Threatens Security and Tourism
Cross-border crime syndicates operating from Myanmar's lawless territories have created a $39 billion fraud operation, raising even more international concern after a high-profile kidnapping of a Chinese celebrity. Thailand's tourism industry is being battered by cancellations during Lunar New Year as safety concerns mount, while Myanmar's Karen Border Guard Force is putting new business regulations in place. The crisis is exposing ASEAN challenges in combating transnational crime networks that are exploiting an estimated 300,000 plus victims through the region's fractured jurisdiction.
Read more: Asian News Network (Border Crime), RFA (Scam Centers), Reuters (Chinese Response), The Irrawaddy (Border Scams)
Junta Control Wanes as Population Plummets
The military regime now controls only 20% of national territory and 33% of the population, with total population dropping to 51 million from 55.8 million in 2022. The September 2024 Ngwe Saung Agreement presents a seven-point roadmap to federal democracy, while junta promises of 2025 elections face skepticism from democracy activists who demand constitutional reform and political prisoner releases.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Election Plans), Newsweek (Religious Crisis), The Irrawaddy (Democratic Transition)
Migrant Amnesty Program Expensive, Dangerous
Thailand's new amnesty program for 2.3 million Myanmar migrants is putting severe financial strain on migrants due to broker fees reaching 15,000 baht per person. Myanmar's government is making it worse with a mandatory 25% salary remittance requirements and a new 2% income tax, effectively triple-taxing workers looking for legal status abroad. The costly path to documentation risks pushing more workers into undocumented status.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar
ASEAN Places Ceasefire Ahead of Elections
ASEAN foreign ministers are calling for an immediate ceasefire over planned elections in Myanmar, as Malaysia has appointed veteran diplomat Othman Hashim as Special Envoy. With resistance forces controlling more than half of Myanmar's territory and with 3.3 million civilians displaced, the bloc faces critical tests in influencing regional stability, complicated by China's growing involvement through ceasefire agreements.
Read more: News Looks (ASEAN Meeting), UCAN News (Peace Progress), Eurasia Review (Post-Coup Analysis)
China Balances Interests in Myanmar Crisis
Beijing's diplomatic strategy is evolving as it brokers a ceasefire with Kokang forces while keeping support for the junta's $8.6 billion Kyaukphyu port project. China's closed-door meetings are telling of growing concern about protecting their investments as the Arakan Army controls 14 of 17 townships in Rakhine State. Beijing has clearly made a pragmatic shift in its approach to securing an economic corridor.
Read more: China Daily (Diplomatic Strategy), The Irrawaddy (Investment Protection), Myanmar Now (Ceasefire Agreement)
Healthcare System Collapse Threatens Disease Control
The deteriorating healthcare system is resulting in an infectious diseases surge, with malaria and tuberculosis cases increasing sevenfold since 2020 and HIV infections rising 10%. The junta's blockade of medical supplies and the destruction of facilities has left nearly 13 million without adequate healthcare, forcing millions to seek treatment in neighboring countries and threatening regional disease control progress.
Read more: The New Humanitarian (Healthcare Crisis), Foreign Policy (Civil War Impact), Mizzima (Medical Access)
Digital Control Tightens Under New Cyber Law
Myanmar has put in place cyber legislation requiring three-year data retention and VPN permissions, while ranking third globally for imprisoned journalists. The military-aligned telecommunications system, supported by Chinese and Russian technology, allows for systematic monitoring and detention of citizens with resistance ties.
Read more: Narinjara News (Press Freedom), Mizzima (Digital Control), Indo-Pacific Defense FORUM (Censorship)
Japanese Retailer Withdraws Defamation Lawsuit
Honeys Holdings has dropped an $858,000 defamation case against Myanmar union leader Myo Myo Aye while still saying that its actions were justified. The case came about as a result of 2017 labor protests and 450 worker dismissals.
Read more: Sourcing Journal
Karen Forces Secure Base as Junta Decline Continues
The KNLA's capture of Kyaikdon base is significant military setback as junta control reduces to 107 of 330 townships. Cross-border trade has dropped 87% at several checkpoints while resistance forces gain momentum, despite regional pressure for ceasefire. The military's loss of 741 outposts and 53 senior officers through 2024 is indicative of an accelerating decline.
Read more: Radio Free Asia (Military Losses), Foreign Policy (Resistance Gains), The Irrawaddy (Political Future)
Conscription Drive Creates Economic Divide
Myanmar's military regime generates a dark market in Mandalay where wealthy families pay bribes of 2-5 million kyats to avoid conscription while vulnerable populations face forced service. The city's homeless population drop from 100,000 to 60,000 since 2021 correlates with aggressive recruitment, highlighting the human cost of the junta's desperate push to maintain power.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Forced Recruitment), Myanmar Now (Migrant Conscription), Asia Pacific Defence Reporter (Military Supply)
Border Trade Power Shifts to Ethnic Armed Groups
Myanmar's $7.7 billion border trade is being reconfigured as ethnic armed organizations has wrested control of trading posts. The junta's strict currency controls have created a parallel economy with stark exchange rate differences, while EAO-controlled points like Muse and Chinshwehaw handle millions in daily trade, a shif in the dynamics of regional commerce that warrants attention.
Read more: Eurasia Review (Trade Dynamics), The Irrawaddy (Currency Control)
Russian Energy Project Advances
Rosatom has partnered with Myanmar's Zeya & Associates on 200 MW wind power project near Mount Popa while national electricity generation has fallen to half capacity. Yangon is getting just a little less than half of its normal power supply and Mandalay has been reduced to less than a fifth. These levels are a regression to 2015 infrastructure levels and widespread blackouts are persistent.
Read more: Reuters (Power Crisis), The Irrawaddy (Infrastructure Collapse), The Irrawaddy (Russian Investment)
ASEAN Visa Integration Challenged
Malaysia's proposal for unified ASEAN tourist visa system is being hamstrung by complications of Myanmar's civil conflict. The Schengen-style initiative connecting six nations will be a test of ASEAN's ability to pursue economic integration while managing regional (in)stability.
Read more: Travel And Tour World
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back— reply and tell us what you think.
If you value the Mekong Memo, please consider buying (or gifting!) a paid subscription, sharing it on social media or forwarding this email to someone who might enjoy it. You can also “like” this newsletter by clicking the ❤️ below (or sometimes above, depending on the platform), which helps us get visibility on Substack.