Myanmar 20250225
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
Southeast Asian business news delivered to your inbox every weekday with the Mekong Memo.
The Memo is published each weekday for the countries of your choice. Paid subscriptions receive full editions while free subscribers usually only get top headlines and the first few stories. We can’t do this without your support, so please consider a paid subscription.
The Mekong Memo is proudly presented by:
Horton International is your premier partner for executive search in Southeast Asia. Whether you're a small startup or a global corporation, our reliable and effective recruiting solutions are tailored to meet your unique needs. With extensive experience and offices across the region, we excel at overcoming recruitment challenges and securing top talent for your organization.
Click here to learn how Horton can make your life easier.
Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
If you appreciate the work that goes into preparing The Memo (and the time it saves you!), please consider a paid subscription to support our efforts. Thank you.
Headlines:
India Pivot Meets Ground Reality
Security Gambit Opens Door to Chinese Muscle
$64B Scam Industry Faces Trilateral Squeeze
Medical Squeeze Turns Humanitarian Crisis
Moscow's Dawei Play Raises Eyebrows
Banking Exodus Signals Sittwe's Unraveling
Aid Freeze Makes Deepening Crisis Worse
Military Trainers Turn Conscription into Cash Cow
Drone War Takes Night Vision Leap
Natural Resources Become Latest Battleground
Rights of the Disabled Under Siege
Wa State Charts New Economic Path
India Pivot Meets Ground Reality
The push to improve trade ties with India, supported by a 23% year-on-year increase in trade to $1.50 billion, is showing of a desperate attempt to reduce Chinese influence even as the junta's territorial control shrinks to less than a third of the country. The implementation of the Rupee-Kyat Trade Settlement Mechanism and discussions on a Coastal Shipping Agreement indicate India's reciprocal interest, though the strategic Kaladan Multi-Modal project remains stalled as the Arakan Army currently controls much of western Myanmar. While India has captured 60% of Myanmar's pharmaceutical market and has its eyes on rare earth mineral access, the junta's tenuous grip on power casts doubt on the sustainability of these initiatives.
Read More: Economic Times (Trade Expansion), The Irrawaddy (Diplomatic Engagement), UCA News (Junta Isolation), The Statesman (Project Challenges)
Security Gambit Opens Door to Chinese Muscle
The military has put a Private Security Services Law in place allowing foreign firms to operate armed security services, a move transparently designed to accommodate Chinese protection of Belt and Road projects. The legislation, which mandates 75% local staffing and requires financial deposits of 100 million kyat, comes as the junta struggles to maintain control over territories where critical Chinese investments are located. While packaged as a regulatory framework, the law effectively circumvents constitutional restrictions on foreign troops, raising concerns of sovereignty among observers who note Beijing's growing influence over the isolated regime.
Read More: Mizzima (Security Firm Regulation), The Irrawaddy (Chinese Security Expansion), The Irrawaddy (China's Regional Infrastructure), Thai PBS World (Myanmar Crisis Engagement)
$64B Scam Industry Faces Trilateral Squeeze
A coordinated crackdown by China, Thailand, and Myanmar has begun pulling down a sprawling network of online scam centers along the Thai-Myanmar border, with early operations securing the release of more than 1,000 Chinese nationals from compounds that collectively generate an estimated $64 billion annually. Thailand's pressure campaign, including cutting electricity and internet access to fraud hubs, has forced the Karen Border Guard Force to promise the deportation of 10,000 compound workers, though regional analysts wonder whether operations will truly stop or if they will simply relocate deeper into Myanmar's conflict zones.
Read More: Shanghai Daily, Nikkei Asia, Shanghai Daily, The Irrawaddy, Space Daily, Frontier Myanmar, Vietnam News
Medical Squeeze Turns Humanitarian Crisis
The junta has turned basic medical supplies into a weapon, with restrictions driving a tenfold increase in essential medicine prices and affecting more than 3.5 million internally displaced persons. The regime's blockade of medical transport, particularly severe in Rakhine, Chin, Sagaing, and Tanintharyi regions, has created a healthcare crisis that rights organizations are now characterizing as potential war crimes. Humanitarian organizations report that nearly 140 health workers have been killed and 840 arrested since the 2021 coup, compromising healthcare delivery capability.
Read More: Mizzima (Stalled Negotiations), Radio Free Asia (Medical Supply Blockade), Frontier (Resource Strangulation), Burma News International (Detainee Disappearance), Burma News International (Civilian Bombing)
Moscow's Dawei Play Raises Eyebrows
Russia's economic footprint expanded this weekend as Minister Maxim Reshetnikov inked nine agreements with the junta, headlined by plans for the Dawei Special Economic Zone that include a seaport, power plant, and even possibly a refinery. The partnership is a pivot from traditional arms-focused relations to broader economic cooperation, though Russian officials remain cautious about the refinery's economic feasibility. While the agreements show Moscow's interest in deepening ties with the regime, the junta's tenuous control over Myanmar's territory casts a long shadow over implementation prospects.
Read More: The Irrawaddy (Economic Cooperation), The Maritime Executive (Port Investment)
Banking Exodus Signals Sittwe's Unraveling
The banking sector beat a hasty retreat from Sittwe this week, with all private and state-owned facilities shuttering operations as the Arakan Army's artillery strikes have begun to fall closer to Rakhine State's capital. The port city, one of only three remaining junta strongholds in Rakhine, is home to several military installations including regional command headquarters and multiple infantry battalions, while serving as an economic gateway for Myanmar-Bangladesh maritime trade. Increased AA operations have paralyzed commercial shipping, with the rebel group now running naval inspections that have brought maritime commerce to a standstill.
Read More: The Irrawaddy (Ethnic Military Cooperation), The Irrawaddy (Sittwe Bank Closure), Mizzima (Rakhine Aerial Bombardment), East Asia Forum (Myanmar Conflict Stalemate), Myanmar Now (Maritime Trade Disruption)
Aid Freeze Makes Deepening Crisis Worse
The humanitarian crisis has reached critical levels as Trump's freeze on US aid is putting a hold on vital programs supporting almost 20 million people, while the junta’s airstrikes force thousands more to flee their homes. The country's descent into what the UN terms a "profound polycrisis" is shaped by a currency that has lost 70% of its value since 2021, rampant inflation at 25.4%, and a healthcare system in tatters, with more than half the population now living below the poverty line. Civil society groups are saying that the aid cuts could inadvertently strengthen the junta's position, potentially turning Myanmar into a "war economy" featuring increased polarization and diminished prospects for a political settlement.
Read More: The New Humanitarian (Humanitarian Crisis), Burma News International (Displacement Crisis), Anadolu Agency (Rohingya Return)
Military Trainers Turn Conscription into Cash Cow
Military training instructors have engineered extortion schemes targeting families of conscripted soldiers, demanding payments under various pretenses including medical treatment and promised releases, with reported individual losses of up to almost $500. The scam, operating across ten training batches of roughly 5,000 recruits each, exploits the military's phone restrictions by allowing controlled communication between recruits and families, creating system of emotional manipulation and financial exploitation. While desperate families deplete savings and accrue debt to free their relatives, the scheme has inadvertently strengthened opposition forces as young people increasingly turn to refuge with ethnic armed groups and resistance forces. The National Unity Government has responded by establishing formal channels through its Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs to help those fleeing conscription.
Read More: bne IntelliNews
Drone War Takes Night Vision Leap
The military has improved its unmanned aerial capability by integrating forward-looking infrared (FLIR) systems into drones. The development, first seen in February propaganda footage showing night-time combat operations in Kachin State, comes alongside the military's expanded use of low-cost motorized paragliders, which have run about 25 recorded attacks already this year. While resistance forces have access to sophisticated drone operations capable of delivering payloads up to 20kg, they increasingly face technological disadvantages against military jamming systems and lack night-operation capabilities. Russian technical assistance appears to be a driver behind the military's drone improvements, suggesting a worrying trajectory for resistance forces who lack access to sufficient counter-measures.
Read More: Geopolitical Monitor (Resistance Drone Innovation), Janes (Military Drone Adaptation)
Natural Resources Become Latest Battleground
The junta has launched a crackdown on illegal natural resource extraction, asserting constitutional authority while targeting businesses they say are supporting opposition forces. In a parallel move that has surprised no one, the National Unity Government has set up its own resource management framework, complete with township-level committees and tax collection systems, effectively creating competing administrative structures for Myanmar's natural assets. Civil society organizations report that the post-coup environment has seen unprecedented levels of resource exploitation, particularly in the timber sector, as the breakdown in rule of law creates opportunities for unauthorized extraction.
Read More: Mizzima
Rights of the Disabled Under Siege
Human Rights Myanmar's latest submission to the UN Special Rapporteur draws a damning picture of abuse against persons with disabilities since the 2021 military takeover, showing a pattern of executions, torture, and persecution that suggests possible crimes against humanity. While the international community has limited leverage over Myanmar's military leadership, the documented "deliberate targeting and disproportionate harm" against disabled individuals is a fresh challenge for stability and investment considerations.
Read More: Burma News International
Wa State Charts New Economic Path
The United Wa State Army is pivoting from its militant roots to try its hand at economic development, coming up with a nine-point plan centered on the Myanmar-China Economic Corridor and infrastructure development. The move, which includes reopening the Mansai tin mine and improving cross-border connectivity, comes as China shifts from its historical role as revolutionary patron to the region's primary trade partner, a shift that began with the 1988 border trade agreement. The UWSA's economic plans, backed by its 30,000-strong military force (and arsenal), is interesting to watch as former insurgent groups try to adapting to modern diplomacy while keeping autonomous governance structures in place.
Read More: The Irrawaddy (China's Strategic Interests), The Irrawaddy (Wa Economic Cooperation)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back— reply and tell us what you think.
If you value the Mekong Memo, please consider buying (or gifting!) a paid subscription, sharing it on social media or forwarding this email to someone who might enjoy it. You can also “like” this newsletter by clicking the ❤️ below (or sometimes above, depending on the platform), which helps us get visibility on Substack.