Myanmar 20250304
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Military's Digital Iron Curtain Tightens
Scam Centers Create Humanitarian Crisis
Aid Cut Threatens Refugees
Deportation Risks from Thailand Mount
Home Destruction Tallied
Chinese Drones Power Military Operations
ASEAN Peace Efforts Stall
Cultural Expression Under Attack
Thai Condo Buys by Myanmar Nationals Skyrocket
Experts Foresee a Nation Fragmented
Human Resources Crisis Hits Productivity
Military's Digital Iron Curtain Tightens
The junta has shown itself to be one of the world's leaders for internet shutdowns, with 85 disruptions notched last year. The junta’s digital repression toolkit includes Facebook blocks, bans on VPN use, and cross-border shutdowns coordinated with Thailand and China. The regime has arrested more than 1,800 people for online expression and put a new Cybersecurity Law in place with an advanced firewall system. A nationwide e-ID system with biometric tracking operates through military-controlled networks like Mytel, supported by technology transfers from China and India.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Shutdown Data), Tech Policy Press (Digital Control)
Scam Centers Create Humanitarian Crisis
The Karen State Border Guard Force is struggling to manage more than 8,700 foreign nationals rescued from scam compounds in Myawaddy Township. Only 621 Chinese nationals have been repatriated, with more than 2,000 awaiting transfer. The Border Guard Force says it faces costs of 10 million baht (almost US$300,000) for only 10 days of detainee care. Crowded conditions have raised fears of disease outbreak and led to several reported escape attempts. The criminal networks running the centers reportedly provide revenue to the junta, and prosecution efforts are being complicated by the regime's ties to scam kingpins.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Repatriation Issues), DW (Criminal Networks), Irrawaddy (Junta Ties)
Aid Cut Threatens Refugees
Food shortages threaten more than 100,000 Myanmar refugees in western Thailand after a U.S. government 90-day aid freeze. The Border Consortium reports that food supplies will last only until the end of March, and that there is a need for $1.3 million monthly for food and cooking fuel. The International Rescue Committee has partially suspended healthcare services. Eight refugee camps were able to start aid services back up again for 90 days until May 20, to the benefit of more than 73,000 refugees in Karen and Karenni camps.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Food Crisis), Mizzima (Aid Resume)
Deportation Risks from Thailand Mount
Thai authorities have deported 200 Myanmar nationals from Ranong to Kawthaung, putting them at risk of military conscription. Deportees face detention and the prospect of transfer to military training camps. Bribe costs to avoid conscription have reportedly increased from 6,000-15,000 baht to as much as 50,000 baht, with decreasing effectiveness. The situation remains grim as young Myanmar nationals flee mandatory service while Thai authorities try to tighten up migrant enforcement.
Read more: Mizzima
Home Destruction Tallied
Military forces have destroyed 112,485 houses since the February 2021 coup, with 108,645 said to have been deliberately burned. Sagaing Region suffered 75,864 houses (67%) destroyed. Destruction peaked in 2022 with 46,856 houses burned. December 2024 saw 4,323 houses burned across nine regions. Other affected areas include Magway, Mandalay, Kachin, Rakhine, Chin, and Tanintharyi.
Read more: BNI Online
Chinese Drones Power Military Operations
The military has expanded its drone capabilities using Chinese-made aircraft including CH4 Rainbow, CH3A, and Yellow Cat varieties. A dedicated drone unit operates under Brigadier-General Nay Myo Tun, with personnel trained in Tianjin. Drones deploy from Bhamo and Taunghkam, targeting resistance groups. China denies direct sales despite ethnic armed organizations reporting otherwise.
Read more: Irrawaddy
ASEAN Peace Efforts Stall
ASEAN special envoy Othman Hashim has run a low-profile visit to Naypyitaw, meeting Foreign Minister Than Swe but not junta leader Min Aung Hlaing. The envoy's Bangkok consultations with revolutionary groups focused on putting and end to the violence and progress on delivering humanitarian aid. The Five-Point Consensus peace plan remains unimplemented despite the fact that the junta remains largely isolated from ASEAN meetings.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Cultural Expression Under Attack
The junta is placing strict censorship on artistic and cultural expressions. Among other levers the government is pulling, a film industry censorship board has returned to strictly enforcing dress codes and traditional Buddhist values. Authorities have banned 11 LGBT-themed books, revoked 10 publishing house licenses, and prosecuted models under the Electronic Transactions Law. The crackdown returns Myanmar to levels of censorship that many citizens thought had become remnants of the past.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar
Thai Condo Buys by Myanmar Nationals Skyrocket
Myanmar nationals have come out as big foreign condo buyers in Thailand, showing 146.1% year-on-year growth to 1,388 units. The big lift comes as residents try to squirrel away capital from Myanmar as instability concerns remain unaddressed.
Read more: Nation Thailand
Experts Foresee a Nation Fragmented
Four years after the 2020 coup, the junta controls less than half the country's territory. The National Unity Government continues to operate in exile while resistance forces control large, and growing areas of the country. Analysts suggest Myanmar is likely to fragment into multiple autonomous regions, with several ethnic armed organizations each demanding self-governance. The situation is made even worse by resistance fragmentation and minimal international intervention.
Read more: Eurasia Review
Human Resources Crisis Hits Productivity
Myanmar is grinding on under a huge human resource shortages after four years of civil conflict. As one example, an exodus of workers and the effects of forced conscription have resulted in a 20% decline in garment production. The economy has contracted by as much as 11% over the past few years and foreign company registrations have been slashed from 1,733 (2019) to 774 (2023). The removal of Civil Disobedience Movement participants from the healthcare and education sectors is further hampering growth and development. The problems created today will likely take years to unwind if the situation ever stabilizes.
Read more: Fulcrum
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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