Myanmar 20250311
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Junta Still Expecting Elections
Battles Rage as Junta Tries to Regain Territory
China Secures BRI Investments
Russian Military and Nuclear Cooperation
USAID Cuts Threaten Critical Support for Millions
Junta Traps Over 40k Workers
Military Linked Companies Eye EV Manufacturing
Tin Mine Reopening Reshapes Global Supply
Criminal Networks Fuel Instability
Junta Restricts Thai-Myanmar Commerce
Gender-Based Violence Persists
KIO Sets Up Administration Framework
Federal Social Democracy Proposed as Solution
Canadian Sanctions, UN Envoy Scrutiny
An Impossible Plutonium Puzzle
Junta Still Expecting Elections
The junta is holding firm on plans to hold elections in December 2025 or January 2026, the first polls since the 2021 military coup. The announcement is being met with dismissal from political observers thanks to several factors: the junta's limited territorial control, the banning of the popular National League for Democracy party, and the proposed use of election observers from Russia and Belarus. Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing's military government plans to move ahead, however, despite having imprisoned former leader Aung San Suu Kyi and imposing restrictions on opposition political activities.
Read more: Eurasia Review (Election Credibility), The Guardian (Expert Analysis), SCMP (Election Timeline)
Battles Rage as Junta Tries to Regain Territory
The military has launched several offensives to try and recapture territory from ethnic armed organizations. In Kanbalu township, Sagaing region, the military targeted villages along a major north-south road, forcing about 20,000 villagers to run. The military has also recaptured camps in Nawnghkio's Tawng Hkam village, Shan state, from the Ta'ang National Liberation Army following failed ceasefire negotiations. The junta has fortified its campaign with drone strikes and the deployment of as many as 40,000 troops.
Read more: RFA (Kanbalu Offensive), RFA (Camp Recapture)
China Secures BRI Investments
China is protecting its Belt and Road investments in Myanmar, especially along the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. Chinese Ambassador Ma Jia's recent trip to Mandalay was intended to demonstrate Beijing's commitment to safeguarding Chinese projects. Major investments include oil and gas pipelines from Rakhine State to Yunnan, the Kyaukphyu Special Economic Zone with its deep-sea port, and a proposed railroad connection. A recently implemented Private Security Services Law allows Chinese security firms to protect infrastructure investments, potentially allowing disguised Chinese military personnel to operate in Myanmar, raising eyebrows about sovereignty. The Arakan Army (AA) is advancing toward complete control of Myanmar's Rakhine state, with only two remaining junta strongholds in Sittwe and Kyaukphyu. The rebels recently captured naval base guard outposts near Danyawaddy. The situation threatens China's strategic interests in the area, particularly the Kyaukphyu economic zone and oil and gas pipeline infrastructure connecting to Yunnan province
Read more: Irrawaddy (Chinese Control), Irrawaddy (Security Firms), Grey Dynamics (Paywall: CMEC Overview), RFA (AA Advances)
Russian Military and Nuclear Cooperation
Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing's meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin was his first presidential invitation since the 2021 coup, resulting in 10 MoUs. The centerpiece agreement allows the construction of a 110-330 megawatt modular nuclear power plant near Naypyitaw, along with cooperation in space exploration and satellite technology. Russia remains Myanmar's primary arms supplier, and Myanmar imports 90% of its oil from Russia. Min Aung Hlaing unsurprisingly expressed support for Putin's Ukraine policies.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Meeting Outcomes), Irrawaddy (Partnership Details), World Nuclear News (Nuclear Agreement)
USAID Cuts Threaten Critical Support for Millions
USAID's planned cancellation of US$259 million in aid to Myanmar for 2025 is a harsh shift in U.S. humanitarian support. The cuts, including the termination of 90% of aid contracts, will impact an estimated 19 million people - roughly a third of Myanmar's population. The reduction threatens humanitarian programs including food security, healthcare, and protection services. The restructuring could shift aid management from USAID to the U.S. State Department, while possibly strengthening the junta's position and allowing for increased Chinese and Russian influence.
Read more: Mizzima (Aid Impact), NHK World (Humanitarian Situation)
Junta Traps Over 40k Workers
The regime has effectively trapped more than 40,000 migrant workers inside the country through regulations put in place since January 2024. A January bylaw prohibits men selected for mandatory military service from traveling abroad, while the suspension of Overseas Workers Identity Cards since mid-February specifically prevents workers aged 18-35 from leaving for Thailand. While restricting most workers' movement, the regime has paradoxically sent 24 workers to Russia in a "pilot project," is worrying some about possible forced military recruitment.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Migration Restrictions), Irrawaddy (Deportation Concerns)
Military Linked Companies Eye EV Manufacturing
Three Myanmar-based BYD electric vehicle distributors - Prime Auto, EV Power, and Essential Motors - are investigating the manufacture of vehicles using a semi-knocked down assembly system. Two distributors reportedly have financial connections to junta chief Min Aung Hlaing's son, Aung Pyae Sone. Chinese EV giant BYD is planning to establish an assembly operation on military-owned land in Bago, using property controlled by the sanctioned Myanma Economic Holdings Limited (MEHL). These moves come despite Myanmar's unreliable power supply and limited EV infrastructure.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Distributor Plans), Myanmar Now (Assembly Plant)
Tin Mine Reopening Reshapes Global Supply
The Man Maw tin mine in Wa State has resumed operations after its closure in August 2023, a change that could have substantial global supply implications. As the world's third-largest tin producer, Myanmar's mining operations mostly serve China's import market. The reopening saw an immediate market responses, with London Metal Exchange prices fluctuating before finding equilibrium at $32,145. The mine's anticipated full reopening is expected in the second half of 2025.
Read more: Reuters (Market Impact), Finimize (Supply Implications)
Criminal Networks Fuel Instability
Myanmar has the dubious distinction of ranking highest worldwide for criminality (8.15/10) while showing the lowest resilience to organized crime (1.63/10), according to a report from the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. The jade industry alone generates about US$31 billion annually, 70% of global trade. Players include the military (Tatmadaw), ethnic armed organizations, and other illicit players dealing in opium, drugs, jade, gold, arms, timber, and scam centers. The phenomenon of "ceasefire capitalism" allows ethnic groups to trade illicit goods, while many local communities have become economically dependent on these markets.
Read more: Global Initiative (Organized Crime), Nikkei Asia (Scam Syndicates)
Junta Restricts Thai-Myanmar Commerce
The regime has cracked down on cross-border trade with Thailand by limiting traffic to just two trucks a day on the main Myawaddy trade route on the heel of a directive from deputy junta chief Soe Win targeting smuggling operations. The restrictions have led to transportation costs soaring to 7-12 million kyats per truck. The restrictions are causing concerns about price increases and supply shortages while interrupting both legal and illegal trade.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Gender-Based Violence Persists
Myanmar women's rights organizations posted a statement on International Women's Day condemning widespread gender-based violence in the country. The statement identified sexual violence during conflict as a war crime. The crisis has created extreme challenges for women, particularly those that count themselves part of the 3.5 million displaced. It is reported that the conflict has caused a rise in in so-called “period poverty,” with menstrual product prices rising more than 300% since the coup, forcing women to use unhygienic alternatives due to economic constraints.
Read more: Mizzima (Women's Rights), Eurasia Review (Period Poverty)
KIO Sets Up Administration Framework
The Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) and its armed wing KIA have launched a new "community-based administration" model following territorial gains. The governance approach involves creating joint administrative committees made up of three KIO officials and four local representatives in newly controlled territories. The KIO wants to focus on providing services like healthcare, education, and social welfare, but the organization faces challenges including resource constraints, inadequate oversight mechanisms, ethnic tensions, and ever-present economic pressures. Also read the next article.
Read more: ISEAS
Federal Social Democracy Proposed as Solution
A new analysis is advocating for the adoption of a federal social democratic system as the solution to Myanmar’s woes. The proposed framework is made up of a federal executive council allowing for equal ethnic representation, rejecting both presidential and traditional parliamentary models. The plan calls for strong autonomy for ethnic states with local resource control, alongside a social democratic economic model balancing free market principles with welfare allowances. Institutional features include a bicameral parliament combining population-based and ethnic representation, alongside an independent judiciary. The idea is to prevent majority dominance while addressing systemic inequalities that have traditionally led to grievances against the central government. Also, please see the previous article.
Read more: The Diplomat
Canadian Sanctions, UN Envoy Scrutiny
Canada has set sanctions against 13 senior government officials and 3 entities in response to human rights violations. The sanctions target the Ministry of Defence and Armed Forces. Separately, rights group Justice for Myanmar is calling for a UN investigation into Special Envoy Julie Bishop's alleged conflicts of interest through her business connections with Chinese state-owned companies. The allegations suggest these business relationships could compromise Bishop's UN role and potentially help finance Myanmar's military regime.
Read more: News.az (Canadian Sanctions), Irrawaddy (UN Envoy)
An Impossible Plutonium Puzzle
A recent case involving Japanese yakuza leader Takeshi Ebisawa has raised alarming questions about nuclear materials trafficking in Myanmar. Ebisawa pleaded guilty to attempting to broker the sale of nuclear materials (uranium, thorium, and plutonium) from Myanmar to Iran, in the wake of a US Drug Enforcement Administration sting operation. While two vials of nuclear material were obtained, with the Department of Justice suggesting the plutonium could be weapons-grade, the source remains a mystery. Myanmar lacks known nuclear processing capabilities, and the biggest insurgent groups have denied involvement. Intelligence agencies continue to investigate.
Read more: Lowy Institute
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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