Myanmar 20250318
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Chinese Belt and Road Projects Continue
Junta Airstrikes (Again) Kill Dozens of Civilians
Forced Recruitment Spreads to the Resistance
Territorial Gains Transform Resistance
Election Plans Despite Territorial Control Crisis
Chinese-Russian Support Props Up Regime
Crackdown on Cross-Border Scams
Decentralized Resistance Proves Resilient
Bangladesh Aid Corridor Under Consideration
Food Aid Crisis Hits a Million People
Border Tensions Rise with China, India
Healthcare System Under Attack
Media Repression Rises as Journalists Targeted
Economy Brutalized by Conflict, Mismanagement
Displaced Rohingya Face Increasing Restrictions
Chinese Belt and Road Projects Continue
Despite fighting with the Arakan Army in Rakhine State, the regime continues to advance a Chinese Belt and Road Initiative project in Kyaukphyu. The $8.6 billion development includes a Special Economic Zone ($1.3B) and deep-sea port ($7.3B), providing China direct Indian Ocean access and reducing its dependency on the Malacca Strait. Chinese state-owned CITIC holds a 70% stake in the project. The junta is also resurrecting the Dawei Special Economic Zone project with Russian investment support. Dawei features a deep-sea port, airport, and energy infrastructure.
China is increasingly turning to private security companies (PSCs) to protect its Belt and Road Initiative investments. This approach allows China to safeguard its interests while ostensibly keeping its principle of non-interference. Myanmar serves as a test case for China's PSC deployment model, as Beijing navigates regulatory frameworks and moves to professionalize its private security sector. Success in Myanmar could set a precedent for protecting Chinese investments in other high-risk regions along the BRI corridor.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Chinese Projects), The Irrawaddy (Russian Investment), Observer Research Foundation (Security Strategy), Fulcrum Singapore (Digital Sovereignty)
Junta Airstrikes (Again) Kill Dozens of Civilians
At least 41 people have been killed in two separate airstrikes. One strike hit Sein Yadanar Monastery in northern Shan State, killing 14 people including eight novice monks. A second attack hit Letpanhla village market in Mandalay Region, resulting in 27 civilian deaths, including six children. The attacks occurred in areas controlled by resistance forces. According to the National Unity Government, 372 children have been killed by junta airstrikes since 2023, and they say that these attacks are potential war crimes.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Strike Details), Myanmar Now (Civilian Impact), BNI Online (Bombing Methods)
Forced Recruitment Spreads to the Resistance
The junta has conscripted more than 70 young men in Mawlamyinegyun (yes, we double checked the spelling!) township, Ayeyarwady region. This is the eleventh training round under the mandatory service law that was put in place last April, which requires two-year service from men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27. The Ta'ang National Liberation Army is also beginning forced conscription in Mogoke, targeting men aged 18-45 to set up local defense units. Complaints have resulted, with TNLA-appointed administrators resigning in protest and community leaders preparing formal objections. Both campaigns indicate the desperation facing forces as they scramble for territorial gains.
Read more: Eurasia Review (Junta Recruitment), The Irrawaddy (TNLA Tactics), Mizzima (Travel Restrictions)
Territorial Gains Transform Resistance
Resistance forces continue to make territorial advances, with the Karen National Liberation Army capturing the junta's Pulutu military base near the Thai border. In Chin State, the Chin National Defence Force has launched "Mission Jerusalem," besieging about 120 government soldiers in a Falam township garrison since mid-November. In Rakhine State, the Arakan Army now controls 14 of 17 townships. The Kachin Independence Army and allies are pushing toward arms manufacturing facilities near KaPaSa ordnance factories. The junta now controls less than half of Myanmar's territory.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Karen Region), Al Jazeera (Chin State Offensive), Mizzima (Base Capture), The Irrawaddy (Arms Factory Threat)
Election Plans Despite Territorial Control Crisis
The junta continues to press for an election even though only 44% of townships were covered in recent census efforts, with just 145 of 330 townships able to prepare voting lists. The junta has invited totally-fair-election-experts Belarus and Russia to send election observers, a move that has been condemned by pro-democracy group Defend Myanmar Democracy as an attempt to legitimize an illegal seizure of power. Belarus and Russia are expected to endorse the process.
Read more: International Christian Concern (Election Context), MPA Press (International Observers), The Irrawaddy (Territorial Control)
Chinese-Russian Support Props Up Regime
Russia has continued to beef up its partnership with the Myanmar military government, setting up a joint satellite imagery analysis center and providing reconnaissance data to support junta operations against rebel forces. The cooperation extends beyond military support, with both nations signing an MoU for a 100-megawatt nuclear power plant. China has deployed security personnel in Rakhine State to protect (Chinese-invested) infrastructure projects, while junta leader Min Aung Hlaing recently met with a Chinese special envoy to discuss elections and cooperation.
Read more: Economic Times (Russian Partnership), UCA News (Nuclear Plans), Mizzima (Drone Technology), Asian News (Chinese Troops)
Crackdown on Cross-Border Scams
A major international operation has damaged human trafficking networks operating scam centers along Myanmar's border. China has sent 2,876 telecom fraud suspects packing from Myanmar, with 2,255 Chinese nationals escorted back specifically from Myawaddy region. Roughly 7,000 foreign nationals from 30 countries have been placed in protective custody, with more than 400 Indonesians transferred to Thailand. The fraudulent operations typically target employee-victims with fake job offers, a confiscation of their passports upon arrival, and then force them to run online scams under threat of violence. These criminal networks, worth billions of dollars, take advantage of regional travel policies and operate sophisticated centers in border areas.
Read more: Business Today (China Repatriation), The Jakarta Post (Indonesian Victims), Global News Myanmar (Extraditions), Panay News (Filipino Targeting)
Decentralized Resistance Proves Resilient
Anti-junta resistance has evolved into an effective decentralized network that prevents the targeting of a central leadership. The movement operates through multiple semi-independent groups including People's Defense Forces, ethnic armed organizations, and local militias, following a "school of fish" pattern. The resistance has seen four distinct leadership waves since 2021: the National Unity Government and PDFs, Ethnic Armed Organizations, the Arakan Army, and currently the Multi-Front EAO Offensive. This structure has shown itself to be surprisingly resilient, allowing resistance forces to keep continuous pressure on while moving toward the capital Naypyidaw.
Read more: The Diplomat (Resistance Structure), MPA Press (NUG Offensive)
Bangladesh Aid Corridor Under Consideration
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres is looking into setting up a humanitarian corridor from Bangladesh to Myanmar to help one million Rohingya refugees. Success depends on securing authorization from local authorities and possibly the Arakan Army rebel group, which is now in control of most of Rakhine State. The corridor would be particularly critical for Rakhine State, where 100,000 internally displaced people face famine risk.
Read more: Barrons (Corridor Plans), Relief Web (Humanitarian Situation)
Food Aid Crisis Hits a Million People
The World Food Programme is going to stop providing assistance to more than one million people in Myanmar starting April due to funding shortages. The decision leaves only 35,000 of the most vulnerable people with continued support, primarily children under five, pregnant women, and the disabled. Currently, more than 15 million people in Myanmar can’t meet basic food needs, with 2.3 million facing emergency hunger levels. WFP says it needs $60 million immediately to maintain the food programs.
Read more: Arab News (Funding Shortage), Barrons (Program Cuts), Daily Sun (Refugee Impact), Relief Web (Emergency Status)
Border Tensions Rise with China, India
Chinese authorities have increased raids targeting undocumented Myanmar migrant workers in Yunnan province's border areas following a 500-worker protest over labor conditions. Authorities are arresting about 30 Myanmar workers daily who have expired border passes or lack documentation, holding them in Ruili and Yinjing prisons. At the Muse border, about 10,000 people line up daily, but only 700 passes are issued. Separately, Indian lawmakers have proposed incorporating Myanmar's Kabaw Valley and parts of Chin State into Indian territory, though the suggestions have been dismissed as impractical by Myanmar stakeholders.
Read more: Radio Free Asia (Chinese Crackdown), Myanmar Now (Indian Proposals)
Healthcare System Under Attack
The healthcare system has suffered a number of devastating attacks of late. The toll includes 352 damaged or destroyed healthcare facilities, 204 facilities converted to non-medical use, 135 health workers killed, and 864 arrested. The Myanmar Armed Forces have been identified as the main perpetrators, using drones, aircraft, missiles, and artillery. Local resistance forces have retaliated with drone attacks on military-occupied healthcare facilities, crippling healthcare across the board in conflict zones.
Read more: Relief Web (Attack Documentation), The News International (Aid Impacts)
Media Repression Rises as Journalists Targeted
Since the coup, 209 journalists and news workers have been arrested, with 55 currently detained or serving sentences. While 152 have been released, 77 were convicted and 10 have died. The junta has put severe press restrictions in place, forcing many media outlets into exile and subjecting journalists to surveillance and economic hardship. Seven individuals, including three foreign ministry officials, have been recently arrested for notarizing medical credentials issued by the National Unity Government.
Read more: IFEX (Journalist Arrests), Myanmar Now (Document Arrests)
Economy Brutalized by Conflict, Mismanagement
Myanmar is now reportedly the world's largest producer of illicit drugs as the state continues to fragment and the economic crisis grinds on. Criminal enterprises have been a rare spot of growth in the economy, including human trafficking "scam cities" and widespread resource exploitation. Separately, a study of Myanmar's 2005 relocation of its capital city shows economic losses in the former capital are bigger than any gains to be found in the new capital, showing how massive urban interventions can lead to adverse outcomes.
Read more: ASPI Strategist (Criminal Economy), Nature (Capital Relocation)
Displaced Rohingya Face Increasing Restrictions
Authorities are systematically arresting internally displaced persons (IDPs) trying to get back to Rakhine state, where the Arakan Army has captured 14 of 17 townships. Around 26 IDPs, including children, have been detained near the Rakhine Yoma foothills between February and mid-March, held without formal charges. The conflict has displaced about 500,000 people in Rakhine state, with the situation made worse by junta-imposed bans on fuel and food transportation. In Thailand, Myanmar refugees face disinformation campaigns on social media, with fabricated claims about migrants demanding excessive wages. These false narratives appear designed to stoke anti-migrant sentiment in Thai society.
Read more: Radio Free Asia (IDP Arrests), Japan Times (Disinformation Campaign)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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