Myanmar 20250325
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
War Spirals as Junta Control Diminishes
Cyber Scams Continue Despite Crackdowns
Foreign Nationals Trapped in Scam Centers
Junta Chief to Attend BIMSTEC Summit
Junta Adjusts to Keep Control
Thai-Myanmar Relationship: It's Complicated
Anti-China Sentiment an Opening for India
Nuclear Ambitions with Russian Support
Aid Cuts and Gender-Based Violence
Thailand Faces Growing Refugee Challenge
Economy Struggles Under Mismanagement
Freight and Logistics Show Hope for Growth
UN Criticism and Port Protection
International Pressure Mounts on the Junta
Raids Displace Thousands Near Historic Sites
Conflict Forces Early Onion Harvest, Prices Drop
India-Myanmar Buddhist Cultural Ties
Calls for a New Approach to Justice
War Spirals as Junta Control Diminishes
The junta now controls only about 15% of the country as the civil war grinds through its fourth year. Resistance forces keep gaining ground, with the Arakan Army capturing 15 towns across Rakhine State and pushing into the Bago and Ayeyarwady Regions. Military airstrikes have increased, with more than 2,500 strikes in 2024 causing more than 1,200 civilian deaths including those of 372 children. Recent attacks include a monastery strike on March 16 that killed 10 civilians and a market bombing on March 14 that killed 27. Despite losing territory, the junta still plans to hold elections between December 2025 and January 2026.
Read more: The Diplomat (Failed State Analysis), Irrawaddy (Territorial Control), Mizzima (Airstrikes Impact), Mizzima(Election Plans)
Cyber Scams Continue Despite Crackdowns
Myanmar has become a major hub for cybercrime and human trafficking, with criminal networks causing $75 billion in global losses between 2020-2024. More than 120,000 people remain trapped in forced online scam operations. Thai authorities recently seized 38 Starlink transmitters headed for scam compounds along the border. Chinese claims of wiping out cyber fraud in northern Shan State don't match reality, with multiple active centers still operating in junta and United Wa State Army territories. The military regime keeps deporting rather than prosecuting fraudsters, weakening both sovereignty and rule of law.
Read more: Eurasia Review (Crisis Overview), The Record (Starlink Seizure), Irrawaddy (Shan State Operations), Irrawaddy (Deportation Policy)
Foreign Nationals Trapped in Scam Centers
Many countries report citizens trapped in Myanmar's telecom fraud operations. Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has confirmed 235 of its nationals remain trapped, with 203 successfully brought home from a total of 438 reported cases. Two Japanese high school students were recently rescued after being lured with fake promises of big earnings, then confined and abused. Officials think about 10,000 foreign nationals are being held in these compounds, with more than 7,000 placed in protective custody during January-February 2025. These scam centers mainly operate in areas controlled by armed groups near the Myanmar-Thailand border.
Read more: Focus Taiwan (Taiwanese Victims), Japan Today (Japanese Students), Eleven Myanmar (Chinese Deportations)
Junta Chief to Attend BIMSTEC Summit
Military leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing will attend the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok on April 3-4, his first visit to an ASEAN country since April 2021. The summit brings together leaders from India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, and Thailand to talk about maritime cooperation, sustainable development, and regional connectivity. The invitation might undercut ASEAN's diplomatic stance on Myanmar's crisis but creates chances for side meetings. Thailand and Bhutan are also expected to sign a Free Trade Agreement during the summit.
Read more: The Diplomat (Summit Participation), Irrawaddy (Summit Details)
Junta Adjusts to Keep Control
The junta is creating armed "People's Security and Anti-Terrorism" militia teams to improve its grip on urban centers. These militias are mostly made up of men over the age of 35 from poor backgrounds who patrol at night with military troops and enforce junta control at the ward level. The program falls under a central committee led by Border Affairs Minister Lieutenant General Tun Tun Naung. In a separate move to maintain economic control, a new 12-member task force has been set up to regulate foreign imports, with power to blacklist importers who don't comply, seize unlicensed goods, and revoke registration certificates.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Urban Militias), Mizzima (Import Controls)
Thai-Myanmar Relationship: It's Complicated
Thailand's security relationship with Myanmar is being challenged as Thailand hosted a two-day parliamentary seminar on security impacts of the ongoing crisis. The event brought together Thai officials, UN representatives, and anti-regime Myanmar organizations to discuss border security, refugee migration, and illegal activities. An Institute for Strategic Policy analysis suggested better intelligence cooperation with ethnic armed groups, improved labor migration policies, and Thailand's potential role as a neutral mediator. Thai-Myanmar border trade has dropped 3.25% in February due to crackdowns on cross-border scam operations.
Read more: Mizzima (ISP Report), Irrawaddy (Security Seminar), Nation Thailand (Border Trade)
Anti-China Sentiment an Opening for India
Myanmar residents are protesting China's increasing meddling in regional affairs, especially in Lashio where the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) has set up an alternative administration. China has closed borders with MNDAA-controlled areas, detained their leader, and tried to broker talks between the military junta and ethnic forces. This rising anti-China feeling gives India an opportunity to offer a different way of engaging through humanitarian aid corridors, partnerships with pro-democracy groups, cross-border economic projects, and diplomatic support for democratic reforms.
Read more: The Statesman (Anti-China Protests), IP Defense Forum (India's Opportunity)
Nuclear Ambitions with Russian Support
The regime signed an agreement this month with Russia's Rosatom to build a 110 MW Small Modular Reactor near Naypyitaw, potentially expanding to 330 MW. While the junta claims the project is intended to reduce power shortages, international observers worry about possible military uses. The timeline of this project stretches from initial 2002 plans for research reactors through Russia's 2007 promise to help, to the 2022 Myanmar-Rosatom nuclear cooperation roadmap. While the nuclear talks are ongoing, the junta is also pushing solar energy to fix widespread power outages, pulling in Chinese investment of 1 billion yuan ($138 million) for solar projects as Yangon residents face harsh electricity rationing.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Nuclear Timeline), Irrawaddy (Solar Push)
Aid Cuts and Gender-Based Violence
The World Food Programme has cut aid to about one million people in Myanmar due to funding shortages, likely tied to recently reduced US aid budgets. The aid cuts come as Myanmar continues to suffer a brutal civil war, raising fears about food security for vulnerable groups. The Human Rights Foundation of Monland has documented severe gender-based violence in southeastern Burma, with 16 women killed, 43 injured, and 21 arrested from December 2024 to March 2025. Military forces have conducted random airstrikes and drone attacks, often reportedly targeting women and children in IDP camps.
Read more: Myanmar Now (WFP Cuts), Mizzima (Gender Violence)
Thailand Faces Growing Refugee Challenge
Thailand now is playing host to more than 80,000 Myanmar refugees across 9 border camps, some dating back to 1984. The 2021 military coup has driven new waves of refugees including government officials, resistance fighters, students, and professionals. Thailand isn't part of the 1951 Refugee Convention and bans refugees from legal work while also lacking integration frameworks. The situation is getting even worse thanks to reduced international funding for camps and limited access to services. Myanmar migrant workers in Thailand face big risks if they go home during the upcoming Songkran festival, even with temporary visa-free travel from April 1 to May 15.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Refugee Crisis), BNI Online (Migrant Risks)
Economy Struggles Under Mismanagement
Military leader Min Aung Hlaing has publicly admitted that international sanctions are hitting the junta's administrative abilities hard. During a State Administration Council forum, he revealed the country's current GDP is 60-70 billion USD, with an ambitious target of 81 billion USD for the next fiscal year. The economy is a disaster, with the Myanmar kyat devaluing from 1,500 to 7,000 per US dollar and inflation doubling prices and making fuel five times more expensive. Import restrictions and power shortages are further hurting the economy, with the number of Japanese businesses dropping from 400 to about 150 active companies.
Read more: Mizzima (Sanctions Impact), Nippon (Economic Deterioration)
Freight and Logistics Show Hope for Growth
The Freight and Logistics Market is expected to grow at 6.3% annually from 2023-2028, with a market value of USD 4.8 billion as of 2022. The market is growing thanks to greater demand for goods transportation, infrastructure improvements, and growth in e-commerce. Big players include Yoma Strategic Holdings, Asia World Company, Gold Energy Group, Max Myanmar Group, and Royal Myanmar Logistics. The sector covers freight transport, forwarding, warehousing, and value-added services for road, rail, air, and sea.
Read more: OpenPR
UN Criticism and Port Protection
A UN statement delivered by FORUM-ASIA representative Khin Ohmar has condemned the junta's big increase in violence in 2024, with airstrikes doubling to more than 2,500. The attacks have killed more than 1,200 civilians, including 372 children. Separately, India is working with Myanmar's military government and Arakan Army rebels to protect the strategically important Sittwe Port in Rakhine province, which opened in May 2023 as part of the Kaladan transit corridor connecting India's northeastern states. The port has already handled more than 150 ships, supporting trade in food, agricultural products, medicines, fuel, and vehicles.
Read more: Mizzima (UN Statement), Economic Times (Sittwe Port)
International Pressure Mounts on the Junta
A group of 290 civil society organizations has called for UN Special Envoy Julie Bishop to be removed from her post, citing possible conflicts of interest due to her connections with Chinese state enterprises. Bishop advises Energy Transition Minerals, which works with Chinese companies Shenghe Resources and China Communications Construction Company. In a separate move, protesters across Myanmar want the International Labour Organization to invoke Article 33 of its constitution against the junta after it failed to implement recommendations from a 2023 ILO Commission of Inquiry.
Read more: Irrawaddy (UN Envoy Criticism), Industriall-Union (ILO Pressure)
Raids Displace Thousands Near Historic Sites
Junta troops from the 33rd Light Infantry Division, along with Pyu Saw Htee militias, raided Letpan village near the historic Mingun pilgrimage site in Sagaing Region. The operation sparked a two-hour battle with the Sagaing People's Defense Force, featuring artillery shelling and drones. The raid burned at least 20 houses, led to multiple civilian arrests, and forced about 3,000 villagers to flee. The attack follows similar raids in January and fits a pattern of destruction in Sagaing Township, where more than 4,000 houses have been destroyed since the coup. The military operation has badly disrupted transportation in the area.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Conflict Forces Early Onion Harvest, Prices Drop
Farmers in Myanmar's Pwintbyu Township, Magway Region, are harvesting onions early because they're worried about conflict. This early harvest has put pressure on prices, with wholesale rates falling from $0.58 to $0.38 per kg. Market access is very limited, with only two wholesalers buying crops. Farmers are now getting back just two-thirds of what they invested because of reduced yields and quality. The situation shows how regional instability directly impacts farm economics and food security in Myanmar's farming communities.
Read more: Fresh Plaza
India-Myanmar Buddhist Cultural Ties
A delegation from India's International Buddhist Confederation recently visited Myanmar, building on India's recognition of Pali as a classical language in October 2024. The delegation signed agreements with major Buddhist institutions including the Sitagu International Buddhist Academy and Shan State Buddhist University. They met with Myanmar's Minister of Information and Minister of Religious Affairs & Culture. The visit included stops at Buddhist centers in Yangon and Naypyidaw, intended to improve cultural ties through Buddhist studies, Pali language preservation, and academic collaboration.
Read more: Economic Times
Calls for a New Approach to Justice
Myanmar's current transitional approach to justice is under the microscope for focusing too much on punishment and pushing real justice to some future time. The National Unity Government and National Unity Consultative Council's strategy emphasizes retribution while delaying the processes of real justice to an undefined transition period. This approach risks making societal divisions worse and ignores immediate needs for reconciliation. Experts say that it is important to start the justice processes now through truth-telling initiatives, community dialogue, and an address of the root causes of conflict. They suggest using journalism, arts, and community practices to share survivor voices and promote healing rather than waiting for a future transition.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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