Myanmar 20250401
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Devastating Quake Worsens Myanmar Crisis
Conflicting Thai Interests Undercut Peace Role
Global Powers Reshape Myanmar Conflict
Junta Calls Civilian Slaughter "Fake News"
Brutal Treatment for Political Prisoners
Military Drafts Men By Lottery
Economy Moribund Under Military Rule
Rice Exports Up But Few Benefit
Aid Funding Dries Up
Military Adopts Drones, Makes Gains
Resistance Forces See Mixed Results
Military Tightens Internet and Supply Control
Facebook Negligence Failed the Rohingya
Border Tensions Rise With Transport Controls
Chinese EVs Take Off in Myanmar
Junta Cronies Profit While Workers Flee
India Shares Governance Models
Devastating Quake Worsens Myanmar Crisis
A massive 7.7 quake hit central Myanmar March 28, with the Junta placing the death toll at 1,700 per - and the U.S. saying it's closer to 10,000. The military government made a rare request for foreign aid, with the United States pledging $2M. Rescue efforts are hampered by equipment shortages, military interference, and supply problems. The disaster hits a country already reeling from food insecurity affecting ~15M people, with aftershocks blocking recovery work. The National Unity Government offered a temporary ceasefire for rescue operations, but the junta responded with more airstrikes near affected areas.
Read more: The Economist (Junta Obstruction), Frontier Myanmar (Damage Assessment), Irrawaddy (Rescue Challenges), WFP (Humanitarian Response), AP News (AI-Assisted Response)
Conflicting Thai Interests Undercut Peace Role
Thailand's peace-broker efforts in Myanmar are failing due to conflicting priorities. Since Myanmar's 2021 coup, Thailand's govt and ex-PM Thaksin tried to take on mediation roles, partly from Chinese pressure to stabilize borders. But Thailand's economic deals with the junta, the potential financial interests of security forces, and preference for "business as usual" relations with Myanmar's military wreck its credibility. Ethnic armed groups remain skeptical of Thai initiatives, though a recent Bangkok seminar gathered Thai officials, civil society groups, and ASEAN lawmakers to discuss the crisis.
Read more: ThinkChina (Credibility Issues), Mizzima (Bangkok Seminar)
Global Powers Reshape Myanmar Conflict
Russia has become the junta's main backer, providing weapons and getting minerals and infrastructure deals in return, even planning the construction of a nuclear power plant. The U.S. has cut support for opposition forces and suspended funding, creating a gap that China might fill. China wants stability and border security, setting itself up as a potential mediator. India's Kaladan transit project faces major problems from the civil war, with costs jumping significantly. These power shifts might push resistance groups toward diplomatic solutions, though foundational issues of democracy remain, so far, intractable.
Read more: The Hour (Power Dynamics), Borderlens (Indian Project Challenges), Reuters (Economic Impact)
Junta Calls Civilian Slaughter "Fake News"
Military boss Min Aung Hlaing hosted a propaganda forum claiming that the international media is distorting the situation in Myanmar. The Information Ministry organized the event to try and counter allegations and boost its global image. The forum follows recent junta airstrikes that killed 14 civilians at a monastery shelter and 27 at a market. Foreign guests got a controlled tour that avoided conflict zones. Since the coup, the regime has done its best to crush independent media, jailing journalists and forcing news outlets into exile. The forum appears to be timed with Min Aung Hlaing's recent Russia and Belarus visits looking for investment, likely aimed at restoring business confidence.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Propaganda Forum), Irrawaddy (Election Promise)
Brutal Treatment for Political Prisoners
The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners passed its 25th anniversary with a bleak report on Myanmar's human rights disaster. More than 28,000 political prisoners have been arrested, with 22,000 still locked up and 2,019 dead in custody. The AAPP documents widespread abuses including torture, forced military recruitment, civilian displacement, and attacks on schools and hospitals. The group provides mental health support, pushes for prisoner release, and works toward transitional justice. Their mission is to support an end to military rule, promoting democracy, and achieving national reconciliation.
Read more: Mizzima
Military Drafts Men By Lottery
The junta launched its 12th forced conscription round in Mandalay using a lottery system targeting males aged 18-35. Parents must sign participation agreements or face jail. The process runs across several townships with armed soldiers, Pyu Saw Htee militias, and police overseeing it. The military uses loudspeaker announcements and night raids, and random arrests have jumped under guest registration checks. The draft campaign began after the law took effect last February, the result of an ongoing military manpower crisis and a redoubling of the junta's coercion efforts, hitting working-class families hardest.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Mandalay Conscription), Mizzima (Labor Restrictions)
Economy Moribund Under Military Rule
National GDP has shrunk 9% from 2020-2024, while inflation hit 25.4% this year. The kyat collapsed from ~1,330 to ~4,520 per US dollar, with poverty levels jumping from 58% to 77%. Foreign investment has plummeted from $5B to a paltry $662M. The meltdown has triggered a mass worker exodus affecting a quarter of businesses, while illegal enterprises like opium and scam centers have been booming. Critical infrastructure has fallen apart, with the healthcare system failing and farming disrupted. The country now depends heavily on China and Russia.
Read more: BNI Online (Economic Collapse), Mizzima (Migration Crisis)
Rice Exports Up But Few Benefit
Myanmar exported 2.3M tonnes of rice in the first 11 months of the fiscal year, pulling in a hair more than $1B - the highest volume since 2019-20. The profits, however, stayed with a few big traders. Indonesia became the top buyer, taking 800,000 tonnes, while China border closures disrupted what would typically have been more traditional trade routes. The sector is being held back by multiple challenges: Typhoon Yagi damage, the ongoing war, and competition from Indian exports. Junta regulations have pushed out smaller traders, creating monopolies like Gold Delta, although relaxed currency rules have helped boost trade.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar
Aid Funding Dries Up
Myanmar faces worsening humanitarian problems against a backdrop of widespread fighting, with more than three and a half million people displaced. The 2025 Humanitarian Response Plan is barely funded at just 4.9% ($55.4M received against $1.1B needed), gutting aid delivery capacity. The health crisis is worsening with disease outbreaks in multiple regions, exacerbated by water shortages. USAID funding cuts have crippled civil society groups, especially in Thai border areas like Chiang Mai and Mae Sot. The cuts have weakened organizations' ability to track hate speech and false information, threatening pro-democracy movements.
Read more: ReliefWeb (Response Plan), Global Voices (USAID Cuts Impact)
Military Adopts Drones, Makes Gains
The junta military scored its first territorial win since 2023, recapturing enemy camps near Tawung Hkam village in eastern Shan state. They've started using quadcopter drones to direct artillery and mortar strikes against rebel positions. The junta also captured Melpote village and Shwe Ayeyar resort, just 25 minutes from TNLA-controlled Nawnghkio town in Northern Shan State, possibly setting up for an attack on Nawnghkio. Recent airstrikes in TNLA areas killed 13 civilians and injured 36 as fighting rages on.
Read more: The Economist (Drone Adoption), Irrawaddy (Northern Shan Gains)
Resistance Forces See Mixed Results
The Karen National Union captured a valued military outpost near the Thai-Myanmar border in Kha Lel Day Village, Hlaingbwe Township. Karen National Liberation Army's Battalions 19, 21, 22, and 24 under Brigade 7 led the operation. In Chin State, the Chinland Defence Force Thantlang seized properties owned by junta member Dr. Hmuh Thang, after previously taking his Hakha home. Meanwhile, the junta destroyed the Chaung Hnit Pauk bridge on the Htonekhar-Mawtaung trade route, disrupting border transport and forcing villagers to evacuate.
Read more: Myanmar Now (KNU Victory), Myanmar Now (Chin State Seizures), Mizzima (Bridge Destruction)
Military Tightens Internet and Supply Control
The junta has tightened up digital control through three avenues: allowing cybercrime operations to flourish, enforcing a strict Cybersecurity Law limiting VPN use and internet access, and pushing for "cyber sovereignty" with control systems like those found in Russia and China. The military also imposed harsh restrictions in Myingyan Township, Mandalay Region, limiting residents to buying a maximum of three bags of rice per purchase backed by mandatory ID checks. They set up 8 checkpoints where people are required to pay fees to move goods, while completely banning the movement of electronic items, solar panels, and diesel fuel.
Read more: The Diplomat (Digital Control), Mizzima (Supply Restrictions)
Facebook Negligence Failed the Rohingya
An investigation has shone a light on Facebook's massive failures in Myanmar that likely enabled violence against Rohingya people. The platform operated with virtually no Burmese language content moderation, untranslated Community Standards, and too few moderators despite known risks. Whistleblower Sarah Wynn-Williams exposed how the company treated Myanmar as "low priority" despite clear warning signs. The platform's algorithms amplified harmful content, while local language reporting tools didn't work, letting hate speech spread unchecked. The evidence suggests Facebook's approach was a systemic failure to implement basic safeguards in a high-risk market.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar
Border Tensions Rise With Transport Controls
Lt. Gen. Joel Vowell from US Army Pacific led a military delegation to Bangladesh ahead of the country's planned China visit. This happened as tensions with Myanmar grow, with the Arakan Army reportedly planning attacks on three important cities: Sittwe, Kyaukpyu, and Munaung. Meanwhile, junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has made rare plans to attend the BIMSTEC leaders' summit in Thailand this April, looking for an opportunity to hold meetings with other leaders including Indian PM Modi.
Read more: Narinjara (US-Bangladesh Visit), Reuters (BIMSTEC Summit)
Chinese EVs Take Off in Myanmar
Chinese electric taxis are booming in Myanmar, with more than 8,000 EVs now operating on a network of 334 charging stations in 136 locations. They're popular because they can handle Myanmar's 40°C heat, cost less to run, and offer quieter, smoother rides than alternatives. Almost all EVs come from China, with Dongfeng and MG leading the market. Myanmar's government is increasing EV import allowances while rental services are expanding. Both drivers and passengers say they strongly prefer the EVs over fuel-powered taxis.
Read more: Xinhua
Junta Cronies Profit While Workers Flee
Military leader Min Aung Hlaing's grand export plans for footwear and tires have foundered on Myanmar's economic reality: a worker exodus and infrastructure collapse. About 7M Myanmar workers have fled to Thailand since the coup, a figure made worse by the junta's limits on foreign worker exports and new conscription rules. The economic crisis features nonexistent foreign investment, a power supply constant only in its unreliablity, and Western sanctions. Military spending jumped to 5.6 trillion kyat in 2023-2024, with economic benefits mostly flowing to military leaders and their families. The civil war has killed 6,000 civilians and displaced 3.5M people.
Read more: Irrawaddy
India Shares Governance Models
India recently hosted workshops in Naypyidaw on federalism and governance for Myanmar stakeholders. Sessions included Myanmar political parties and NCA-signatory armed groups, with Indian experts being provided from the Indian Council for World Affairs and Vivekananda International Foundation. The workshops covered India's experience managing ethnic diversity, constitutional frameworks, dialogue-based conflict resolution, and a multi-ethnic federal systems. Myanmar participants reportedly found India's decades of handling complex political and ethnic challenges of interest, and suggested that they looked forward to applying these lessons to improve their own federal structure.
Read more: Economic Times
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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