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Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
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Headlines:
US Tariffs Rock Thai Trade
Quake Recovery Exposes Deeper Problems
Economic Outlook Worsens After Quake
Nuclear Power Back on the Table
Casino Bill Rushes Forward
Human Trafficking Claims Hit Government
Thai Chamber Launches Growth Plan
One-Stop Centers Cut Red Tape
Opposition Targets PM with Petitions
EV Tax Breaks Get Go-Ahead, Food Oil Takes Flight
Anti-Corruption Measures Widen
Retirement Lottery Gets Full Approval
Gulf Development's Rocky Market Start
Real Estate Faces Multiple Challenges
Myanmar Junta Leader Visits Bangkok
Cheers! Alcohol Sales Rules Relaxed
Online Fraud Costs Thailand 60B Baht
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US Tariffs Rock Thai Trade
The United States this week slapped Thai exports with a 37% tariff - way above the expected 10-15% rate. The new tax is a grave threat to Thailand's $35B trade surplus with America. Manufacturing and auto sectors are taking the biggest hit. Thai industry leaders are planning emergency meetings to come up with countermeasures, including buying more US products to balance trade. Options include getting LNG from America instead of Middle Eastern sources. Cars, electronics, and foreign auto imports are starting down the worst of the disruption, with vehicle exports already down 18.1% in early 2025.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Tariff Impact), Think.ing (Regional Perspective), Nation Thailand (Government Response)
Quake Recovery Exposes Deeper Problems
The financial sector is still reeling after a 7.7 quake near Myanmar struck 24 Thai provinces. Government checks found 3,375 government buildings impacted, with 34 listed as “badly damaged.” The State Audit Office collapse that trapped 80+ workers has triggered probes into 37 companies, focusing on China Railway Number 10 and Xin Ke Yuan Steel. The latter allegedly used more than 7,400 fake tax invoices worth 200+ million baht. The Senate blasted the government's slow emergency response and limited alert system that apparently only reaches 200,000 people.
Read more: Khao Sod English (Earthquake Impact), Bangkok Post (Financial Stability), Vietnam News (Damage Assessment), Khao Sod English (Company Investigation), Bangkok Post (Government Response)
Economic Outlook Worsens After Quake
Economic prospects have darkened following last week’s earthquake, adding to existing problems from US trade tensions, high household debt, shrinking Chinese tourism, and falling factory output. The quake caused about 20 billion baht in immediate economic damage, with tourism expecting a 10-15% drop in foreign visitors. Property recovery also faces delays due to earthquake fears. The Bank of Thailand will likely cut interest rates in April and later this year. Delta Electronics has become Asia's worst performer on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, losing half its market value in 2025 and wiping out about $30B in market cap.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Economic Forecast), Bangkok Post (Stock Market Impact)
Nuclear Power Back on the Table
Global Power Synergy is pushing Small Modular Reactors as Thailand works toward net-zero emissions by 2065. These mini-reactors (up to 300MW each) offer low carbon output, factory construction, easy transport, and better safety. Thailand currently gets 60% of electricity from natural gas and 20% from renewables. The Energy Ministry wants 600MW from nuclear by 2080 while trying to keep power costs at 4 baht per unit (kWh). Public fears and safety concerns remain major hurdles.
Read more: Bangkok Post (SMR Proposal), Bangkok Post (Electricity Rates)
Casino Bill Rushes Forward
Thailand's cabinet approved casino-entertainment complex legislation, capping gambling areas at 10% of total space. Thai nationals must pay a 5,000 baht entry fee and prove they have at least 50 million baht in the bank. The plan’s proponents say that is will generate up to $7B yearly from regulated gambling tourism. Critics say the bill is being pushed through parliament too quickly without proper studies before the April 10 session ends. Civil society groups are threatening legal action over money laundering risks and special foreign investor privileges, while the government claims 60% public support.
Read more: Macau News (Bill Details), Bangkok Post (Opposition), Bangkok Post (Timeline Concerns), Yogonet (Market Potential)
Human Trafficking Claims Hit Government
Deputy Commerce Minister Suchart Chomklin faced heat during a censure debate over human trafficking of Thai berry pickers in Finland and Sweden. MP Sahassawat Kumkong raised alarms about a possible 3,000 baht per worker bribe scheme and widespread exploitation. The Department of Special Investigations is looking into the case involving about 3,900 Thai workers sent yearly, with 30 reporting serious problems like passport seizure, debt bondage, and poor living conditions. This investigation could damage PM Paetongtarn Shinawatra's administration if Suchart is found guilty.
Read more: Prachatai English (Censure Debate), Tribune India (EU Trade Impact), Bangkok Post (Government Credibility)
Thai Chamber Launches Growth Plan
New Thai Chamber of Commerce chairman Poj Aramwattananont has announced a four-pillar strategy to improve Thailand's economic competitiveness. The plan covers Global Trade & Investment, Business Transformation & Sustainability, Talent Development & Ecosystem, and SME Empowerment & Public-Private Partnerships. It is designed to build business confidence, push digital transformation, promote ESG practices, develop workers through reskilling, and help small businesses access financing.
Read more: Nation Thailand
One-Stop Centers Cut Red Tape
Multiple one-stop service centers have been set up to speed up investment and green energy adoption. The Thailand Investment and Expat Services Centre combines investment, visa, and work permit services through collaboration between the Board of Investment, Immigration, and Employment Department. The changes come as 2024 saw 3,100 investment projects worth 1.1 trillion baht approved - the highest in 10 years. Separately, a new one-stop center from Energy, Interior, and Industry ministries is expected to cut solar panel approval time for factories from six months to “much faster,” possibly making things easier for more than 72,000 factories nationwide.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Investment Services), Bangkok Post (Solar Approvals)
Opposition Targets PM with Petitions
The People's Party filed two petitions against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra after a recent censure debate. The first asks the Revenue Department to investigate her share purchases through promissory notes, questioning possible tax dodging. The second wants the Department of Land to check land docs for a luxury hotel in a watershed area. MP Wiroj Lakkhanaadisorn claims Paetongtarn owes 4,434.5 million baht to family members through share purchases, with promissory notes lacking clear payment terms to hide gifts as purchases. Paetongtarn defended herself, saying the transfers were the result of legitimate company restructuring.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Petition Filing), Prachatai English (Tax Fraud Allegations), Prachatai English (No-Confidence Vote)
EV Tax Breaks Get Go-Ahead, Food Oil Takes Flight
Cabinet approved tax breaks for large commercial electric vehicles, offering corporate income tax exemptions through the end of this year. Companies can claim 2x cost deductions for locally made EVs and 1.5x for imported ones. To qualify, vehicles must be newly manufactured, meet transport standards, not benefit from other tax benefits, and boost national competitiveness. The government wants 10,000 commercial EVs on roads, including 6,000 electric buses and 4,000 trucks. In separate news, the Department of Industrial Promotion has teamed up with Bangchak Corporation and major food companies to turn used cooking oil into sustainable aviation fuel in support of Thailand's carbon neutrality target by 2050.
Read more: Bangkok Post (EV Incentives), Bangkok Post (Aviation Fuel)
Anti-Corruption Measures Widen
The National Anti-Corruption Commission now includes same-sex de facto spouses in its anticorruption rules. The regulation requires same-sex partners of politicians and high officials to declare assets jointly and bans them from government business that could create conflicts. The Comptroller-General's Department is improving its Integrity Pact program by requiring external observers to monitor public construction projects from the bidding stage, focusing on projects worth 1 billion baht or more. The program has so far been successful, with 53 projects from 2015-2019 seeing savings of 73 billion baht.
Read more: Tilleke & Gibbins (Spouse Regulation), Bangkok Post (Project Monitoring), Bangkok Post (Extravagant Spending)
Retirement Lottery Gets Full Approval
Parliament unanimously passed a bill changing the National Savings Fund Act 2011, creating a new "retirement lottery" system. The plan raises retirement savings through 50-baht lottery tickets bought through a mobile app, with weekly Friday drawings. The government is putting up 700 million baht yearly for prizes and expects 13 billion baht in annual savings to result. Participants get their principal plus returns at age 60. The program cleverly redirects Thailand's gambling culture toward useful retirement savings. Lawmakers are looking at adding flexible fund access and guaranteed minimum returns.
Read more: Bangkok Post
Gulf Development's Rocky Market Start
Gulf Development, formed by merging Gulf Energy Development and Intouch Holdings, debuted with a 736 billion baht valuation in choppy market conditions from US tariff announcements and the earthquake aftermath. The company, led by billionaire Sarath Ratanavadi, combines power generation, seaports, infrastructure, and telecommunications. With 35 billion baht in cash and expected 20% earnings growth through 2027, the AA-rated firm plans to invest $1.75 billion in data centers while expanding into emerging tech including AI infrastructure.
Read more: Bangkok Post
Real Estate Faces Multiple Challenges
The property sector is shrinking, with expectations of a 3% decline in 2025. The housing market is struggling with slow economic growth, high household debt, and an aging population. An excess supply of 234,400 units in Bangkok is only making things worse. The government is trying stimulus measures including relaxing loan-to-value rules and cutting transfer and mortgage fees to a rate as low as possibly 0.01%. Analysis say these steps could increase residential transfers by 9.7% year-on-year and increase new developments by 22.6%. Without help, the sector faces potential drops of 3.5% in transfers and 0.8% in new projects.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Market Analysis), Bangkok Post (Stimulus Measures)
Myanmar Junta Leader Visits Bangkok
Myanmar's junta chief Min Aung Hlaing attended the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok - his first visit to a Southeast Asian nation since the 2021 military coup. The summit included Thailand, Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan, coming as Myanmar dealt with a the earthquake that killed at least 2,886 of its people. While Min Aung Hlaing has been banned from ASEAN summits for failing to implement a peace plan, the earthquake created a diplomatic opening. The summit was centered on trade, investment, connectivity, security, and cultural cooperation, with outcomes including the BIMSTEC Bangkok Vision 2030.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Diplomatic Visit), Nation Thailand (Summit Details)
Cheers! Alcohol Sales Rules Relaxed
Laws repealing a 1972 military-era alcohol sales ban that bizarrely prohibited sales before 11 a.m. and between 2-5 p.m have been approved. The change is being promoted as being in aid of boosting tourism and beverage industry income by removing what lawmakers called "unreasonable control." The bill also suggests easing draconian limits on alcohol advertising. The legislative change fits Thailand's wider alcohol market liberalization, including the earlier removal of wine import tariffs. The market is reporting good growth, with wine imports jumping from 1.53 billion baht pre-pandemic to 4.43 billion baht today.
Read more: VinoJoy
Online Fraud Costs Thailand 60B Baht
Online fraud cost Thailand a staggering 60 billion baht in 2024, according to a recent national seminar. The country received 38 million fraudulent calls and 130 million fake SMS messages, with more than 400,000 online fraud cases reported in just the first quarter of 2024. Thai police now use a 74-question screening process to tell real trafficking victims from willing participants in border scam operations. The Anti-Trafficking in Persons Division is leading efforts to fight human trafficking with better technology and coordination, placing officers at some of the main border points and using big data systems to tease out useful information from the data.
Read more: Nation Thailand (Fraud Statistics), Bangkok Post (Law Enforcement)
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
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