Myanmar 20250408
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Devastation Compounds Crisis
Junta Weaponizes Relief Efforts
Relief Becomes Geopolitical Chessboard
Earthquake Could Be Catalyst for Peace
BIMSTEC Fails to Coordinate Effective Response
Rebel Groups Navigate Earthquake Response
Internet Shutdowns Hamper Rescue and Relief
Political Protest Crackdown Extends to Thailand
Junta's Economic Activities Exposed
Natural Disasters Versus Man-Made Catastrophes
Resource Exploitation Continues
Women Farmers Challenged in Rakhine State
Cyber Scam Centers Evolve Despite Crackdowns
UN Agencies Mobilize Response
Devastation Compounds Crisis
A catastrophic 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar on March 28, causing more than 3,500 deaths with estimates suggesting the toll could eventually rip above 10,000. The disaster has severely impacted Sagaing and Mandalay regions, destroying important infrastructure, hospitals, and religious sites including the 1,000-year-old Shwe Sar Yan Pagoda complex. The earthquake comes at a terrible time, exacerbating an already extant humanitarian crisis, with 3.5 million people displaced since the 2021 coup. Rescue efforts face immense challenges from infrastructure damage, limited access, and ongoing military operations despite an announced ceasefire.
Read more: NPR (Political context), CNN (Rescue efforts), National Geographic (Cultural impact)
Junta Weaponizes Relief Efforts
Myanmar's military junta, led by Min Aung Hlaing, is attempting to leverage earthquake relief efforts to win diplomatic legitimacy. Despite declaring a 20-day ceasefire to support humanitarian assistance, the military has reportedly continued operations in affected areas, conducting at least 21 air and artillery strikes. The junta's participation in the BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok was Min Aung Hlaing's first major diplomatic appearance since the coup, attracting criticism for legitimizing the military regime. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's call for a permanent ceasefire has been effectively ignored.
Read more: CNBC (Diplomatic strategy), Irrawaddy (Ceasefire violations), SMH (BIMSTEC summit)
Relief Becomes Geopolitical Chessboard
The earthquake has set a scramble for influence in motion as global powers step into the aid vacuum left by a retreating United States. With more than 3,500 lives lost, China seized the spotlight, sending hundreds of rescuers and millions in supplies, only to have its convoy fired on by Myanmar troops. Japan airlifted medical aid, and ASEAN faces pressure to lead. The United States, once a disaster-response heavyweight, is mostly missing, sidelined by the Trump administration’s shutdown of USAID. As tensions rise between armed groups and junta forces, China also pressures its allied militias to pull back from cities like Lashio, adding fuel to a flame where aid and power go hand in hand.
Read more: Mizzima (Convoy shooting), The Irrawaddy (China pressure), SCMP (ASEAN gap), NBC Washington (US absence), Kyodo News (Japan aid)
Earthquake Could Be Catalyst for Peace
The catastrophic earthquake could serve as a catalyst for peace negotiations in the ongoing civil conflict, drawing parallels to how the 2004 tsunami influenced conflict resolution in Indonesia's Aceh region. Despite the junta's inadequate disaster response and continuing military operations, the crisis has forced temporary ceasefires and created diplomatic openings. Cambodia has come to the fore as a possible mediator, while ASEAN and the international community are being called on to facilitate humanitarian aid. Myanmar is a highly superstitious culture and the earthquake is being widely interpreted by local astrologers and military sources as a divine sign forecasting the potential fall of military leader Min Aung Hlaing's regime.
Read more: Khmer Times (Peace prospects), Al Jazeera (Political symbolism), Just Security (Strategic implications)
BIMSTEC Fails to Coordinate Effective Response
The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) has demonstrated an inability to mount a cohesive regional response to Myanmar's earthquake despite an established disaster management framework. While individual BIMSTEC members including India, Thailand, Bangladesh, and Nepal have provided independent assistance, the organization has failed to coordinate collective humanitarian assistance and disaster relief efforts. A recent BIMSTEC summit in Bangkok produced only vague commitments without specific relief plans, a real missed opportunity to improve the group’s heft.
Read more: The Diplomat (Organizational failure), Irrawaddy (Forum criticism)
Rebel Groups Navigate Earthquake Response
The earthquake has forced a recalibration of military operations by both the junta and opposition forces. The Three Brotherhood Alliance, made up of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), Ta'ang National Liberation Army, and Arakan Army, announced a month-long unilateral ceasefire to support humanitarian efforts. The MNDAA is preparing to pull back from 12 wards in Lashio, Northern Shan State, following pressure from China, which has threatened border closures and economic consequences if they refuse to comply. The planned withdrawal has angered resistance groups who participated in the original capture of the city.
Read more: Reuters (Ceasefire declaration), Irrawaddy (Chinese pressure), Irrawaddy (Activist perspective)
Internet Shutdowns Hamper Rescue and Relief
Sagaing Region, an area already experiencing the country's most severe internet restrictions, with 85 documented blackouts in 2024 alone, was especially hard hit by the earthquake. These military-imposed communication blackouts have severely hampered emergency response coordination, humanitarian aid delivery, and fundraising efforts. Digital rights advocates say that the junta's control over telecoms infrastructure is blocking both internet access and alternative communication methods, creates inhumane barriers to organizing life-saving operations and preventing information flow during the crisis.
Read more: Rest of World
Political Protest Crackdown Extends to Thailand
A student protester was arrested at the BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok after publicly denouncing Myanmar's military leader Min Aung Hlaing as a "murderer" and criticizing Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra's government for supporting him. The incident occurred during Hlaing's attendance at the summit, highlighting regional tensions over diplomatic engagement with Myanmar's military regime. Human rights groups condemned Hlaing's invitation to the summit, while Myanmar's National Unity Government challenged his legitimacy to represent the country at international forums.
Read more: Jurist (Protest arrest), Thai Political Prisoners (Commentary)
Junta's Economic Activities Exposed
An investigation shows how Min Aung Hlaing's son, Aung Pyae Sone, controls big parts of Myanmar's tire market through a web of business networks. Operating through companies like YHI Aung (Myanmar), Capital Ace Company, and CRV, he works with business partner Maung Maung Naing to manage exclusive distribution rights for imported tire brands while marketing rebranded "Joker" tires. The investigation provides some insight into how military-linked businesses are able to short-circuit international sanctions put in place by Western governments.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Natural Disasters Versus Man-Made Catastrophes
The earthquake's devastation has brought natural disasters and the ongoing man-made catastrophes of military rule in Myanmar into contrast. While natural disasters cause temporary disruption, the military's repeated interventions since 1962 have systematically dismantled Myanmar's potential through crushing political opposition, destroying economic infrastructure, and suppressing education. The current situation under Min Aung Hlaing's 2021 coup has led to civil war, human rights violations, economic collapse, and massive population displacement, effectively rendering Myanmar a failed state.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Resource Exploitation Continues
Chinese gold mining operations in Myanmar's Shan State have caused dangerous levels of arsenic contamination in the Kok River. Testing has shown arsenic concentrations at 0.026mg/L, more than double the safe standard, along with elevated levels of cadmium and lead. Four Chinese companies operating open-pit gold mines since 2020 are releasing untreated mining wastewater directly into the river, with pollution extending downstream to Thailand's Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai provinces. Separately, Myanmar's rare earth mining regions have been affected by the earthquake, possibly disrupting supplies to China and impacting global markets.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Mining pollution), Oil Price (Rare earths market)
Women Farmers Challenged in Rakhine State
In Rakhine State, ongoing conflict and environmental challenges have forced many men to abandon their villages, leaving women to become primary agricultural providers. This change has resulted in lowered rice production across the region, as women struggle to maintain traditional farming practices while lacking access to resources and training typically available to male farmers. The change has placed additional burdens on women who must balance household duties with agricultural responsibilities, leading to reduced crop yields and increasing food insecurity in areas already hit hard by both conflict and natural disasters.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar
Cyber Scam Centers Evolve Despite Crackdowns
The vast cyber fraud operation continues to expand in Myanmar's border regions despite international pressure, with an estimated 100,000 people trapped in scam centers generating $43 billion in annual losses. These criminal enterprises, mostly along the Myanmar-Thailand border, are advancing their capabilities by using AI, deepfakes, and cryptocurrency for money laundering. The civil war has created conditions allowing these operations to flourish, with armed ethnic militias benefiting directly from the illegal activities. Recent crackdowns have forced some of these networks to adapt by expanding to new regions including Africa, South Asia, and the Gulf.
Read more: CNN (Criminal operations), Japan Times (Trafficking networks)
UN Agencies Mobilize Response
UN agencies are spearheading relief efforts in earthquake-affected regions, focusing on immediate humanitarian needs including food, clean water, medical supplies, and shelter. The World Health Organization has set out to fill an urgent need for trauma kits, mobile hospitals, and emergency medical teams, with shortages of basic medical supplies in affected areas. UNHCR is asking for $16 million in funding to help 1.2 million earthquake survivors, having already deployed emergency supplies. The World Food Programme is warning of acute hunger facing 15 million people.
Read more: UN News (Coordination), UNHCR (Funding), NPR (WHO)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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