Myanmar 20250415
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
Southeast Asian business news delivered to your inbox every weekday with the Mekong Memo.
The Memo is published each weekday for the countries of your choice. Paid subscriptions receive full editions while free subscribers usually only get top headlines and the first few stories. We can’t do this without your support, so please consider a paid subscription.
The Mekong Memo is proudly presented by:
Horton International is your premier partner for executive search in Southeast Asia. Whether you're a small startup or a global corporation, our reliable and effective recruiting solutions are tailored to meet your unique needs. With extensive experience and offices across the region, we excel at overcoming recruitment challenges and securing top talent for your organization.
Click here to learn how Horton can make your life easier.
Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
If you appreciate the work that goes into preparing The Memo (and the time it saves you!), please consider a paid subscription to support our efforts. Thank you.
Headlines:
Death Toll Passes 3,600 as Scale Emerges
Tourist Visas Suspended Indefinitely
Monsoon Season Threatens to Make Things Worse
Soft Soil Conditions Amplified Damage
Junta Exploits Disaster for Legitimacy
International Aid Efforts Show Geopolitical Shift
Earthquake Creates New Test for ASEAN
Bitcoin as Tool for Disaster Relief
Social Media Misinformation Flourishes
Resistance Movement in a Moral Quandary
Min Aung Hlaing Restructures Military Leadership
Cyber Scam Centers Strain China Relations
NUG Calls for More India Support
Death Toll Passes 3,600 as Scale Emerges
A devastating 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar on March 28, claiming (so far) more than 3,600 lives, injuring approximately 5,000, and leaving hundreds missing. The disaster caused widespread infrastructure destruction, damaging or destroying nearly 50,000 residential buildings, 5,275 religious structures, 3,094 monasteries, 2,045 schools, 167 healthcare facilities, 198 dams, and 148 bridges. UN estimates indicate roughly 17 million people have been affected in nearly 60 townships. Recovery efforts face the monumental challenge of removing 2.5 million tonnes of debris - 125,000 truckloads - from affected areas.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Damage Statistics), NDTV (Debris Removal), Phys.org (Seismic Analysis)
Tourist Visas Suspended Indefinitely
Myanmar has suspended all tourist visa issuances following the earthquake and aftershocks. The natural disaster has caused extensive damage to vital infrastructure, including historic sites in Bagan and Mandalay, while impacting transportation networks, power supplies, and communication systems. The government has put a recovery program in place and temporarily stopped the issuance of all tourist visas “to ensure visitor safety” and allow emergency response teams to focus on reconstruction efforts. No specific timeline has been provided for the resumption of visa services.
Read more: Travel and Tour World
Monsoon Season Threatens to Make Things Worse
The approaching monsoon season threatens to exacerbate Myanmar's post-earthquake cleanup and recovery. Aid organizations warn of the need for shelter, medical supplies, and food before weather conditions deteriorate. The disaster has compromised water and sanitation systems, raising fears of water-borne illnesses. Health officials are particularly focused on preventing disease outbreak and providing mental health support, while working to get damaged healthcare facilities back up and running properly.
Read more: Vision Times (Monsoon Concerns), Direct Relief (Health System Impacts), Forbes (UNICEF Response)
Soft Soil Conditions Amplified Damage
The earthquake has apparently allowed scientists to learn about previously unknown vulnerabilities in areas traditionally considered safe from seismic activity. Creating a 400 km fault rupture with ground acceleration exceeding 0.6g, the quake caused unexpected damage as far as Bangkok, 620 miles from the epicenter, with tremors also felt in Vietnam and Southwestern China. Soft soil conditions amplified seismic waves, particularly affecting buildings without earthquake-resistant design. These findings have implications for major cities worldwide, including Doha, Dubai, Mumbai, and Singapore, and there will be a need for new seismic risk assessments in historically low-risk regions.
Read more: Phys.org (Engineering Analysis), Canberra Times (New Aftershock)
Junta Exploits Disaster for Legitimacy
The military regime is using the earthquake to try and find international legitimacy while continuing military operations. Despite announcing a temporary ceasefire for humanitarian purposes, the junta ran 138 military strikes between March 28-April 9. Senior General Min Aung Hlaing's participation in the Bay of Bengal regional summit in Bangkok has been overshadowed by reports of airstrikes in earthquake-affected areas. The junta is trying to control the disaster narrative and using international condolence messages to present a reformist image in advance of planned elections.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Legitimacy Efforts), Asia Nikkei (Military Operations), Jakarta Post (Information Control)
International Aid Efforts Show Geopolitical Shift
The devastating earthquake has triggered a global aid response, but has also been revelatory of geopolitical divides. China quickly pledged over $137 million in aid and sent more than 30 rescue teams, reinforcing its influence in the region. Russia and India also sent support. Singapore sent a 34-member emergency medical team to set up a field hospital capable of treating more than 100 patients a day. The United States, after dismantling much of its foreign aid infrastructure, offered a modest $9 million and sent a small assessment team, drawing criticism for its limited engagement. As aid pours in, the disaster has shown how China and Russia are expanding their roles while Western influence wanes.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Strategic Rivalries), AsiaOne (Singapore Team), China Daily (Chinese Response)
Earthquake Creates New Test for ASEAN
Myanmar's position as ASEAN's poorest member state makes the disaster response particularly interesting to watch as a test of ASEAN backbone. Malaysia's Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, serving as ASEAN chair, has announced a planned meeting with Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in Bangkok to work on humanitarian issues and to try and extend the ceasefire in support of relief efforts.
Read more: Straits Times (ASEAN Challenge), Reuters (Malaysian PM Meeting), Bangkok Post (Thai Support)
Bitcoin as Tool for Disaster Relief
Bitcoin is reportedly being deployed as a tool for earthquake relief. A project led by Win Ko Ko Aung of the Human Rights Foundation takes advantage of Bitcoin's properties to bypass traditional financial barriers and military surveillance. Through the Geyser Fund platform, the project allows direct peer-to-peer aid transfers, and will work even during internet shutdowns. The system uses smartphone-accessible Bitcoin wallets to distribute aid efficiently while maintaining privacy and staying away from regime oversight.
Read more: Forbes
Social Media Misinformation Flourishes
Social media platforms have become breeding grounds for misinformation following the earthquake, with content creators trying to capitalize on the disaster by generating ad revenue. The way the digital advertising ecosystem has been set up incentivizes the spread of false or AI-generated content on platforms like Meta, Facebook, and TikTok. Viral posts feature miscaptioned images from unrelated incidents, and AI-generated content and repurposed videos have falsely been presented as earthquake footage. This spread of misinformation has made emergency response efforts more difficult, particularly against a backdrop of interrupted internet connectivity that creates information vacuums.
Read more: Eco-Business
Resistance Movement in a Moral Quandary
The resistance movement is having to confront difficult moral choices regarding humanitarian aid and political objectives after the earthquake. Some resistance supporters have displayed concerning attitudes toward civil servants affected by the disaster, viewing them primarily through a political lens rather than as earthquake victims. The situation has created tension between funding priorities: supporting earthquake relief or furthering resistance activities. On the other side of the conflict, the National Unity Government has also voiced concern about the junta’s weaponization of aid distribution, as a balance between humanitarian principles and political goals needs to be struck by both sides.
Read more: Frontier Myanmar
Min Aung Hlaing Restructures Military Leadership
Min Aung Hlaing has shuffled hi military leadership, possibly in preparation for a political transition. He has elevated Lieutenant General Kyaw Swar Lin to Chief of the General Staff and appointed Lieutenant General Ko Ko Oo as chief negotiator with the Three Brotherhood Alliance. These changes are reminiscent of former leader Than Shwe's transition strategy, suggesting Kyaw Swar Lin may be being set up as a successor. Min Aung Hlaing still faces huge challenges however, including major military defeats, fierce resistance movements, and limited control of territory.
Read more: East Asia Forum
Cyber Scam Centers Strain China Relations
Cyber scam centers along the China-Myanmar border are becoming a bigger diplomatic tension point between the nations. These centers, combining human trafficking and forced labor, target victims in Asia, the US, and Europe. China has responded with increased diplomatic pressure and set up coordination centers with local authorities. The issue gained attention following Operation 1027's disruption of scam centers and the high-profile abduction of Chinese actor Wang Xing, but the persistence of these operations has strained bilateral relations and shown how impotent the junta’s control over criminal networks really is.
Read more: Stimson Center
NUG Calls for More India Support
The National Unity Government is making a strong appeal to India for more support in their fight of resistance against the junta. The NUG says that current circumstances, including growing anti-Chinese sentiment and weakening military morale, make this an opportune moment for India to take a more assertive role in expanding its regional heft. The NUG’s shadow government wants India's recognition of NUG representatives and physical support in the form of weapons, ammunition, and medical supplies while reminding New Delhi of the value of India's historical and cultural ties with Myanmar.
Read more: The Diplomat
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
Your voice matters to us. Feel we're missing something? Have additional sources to suggest? Don't hold back— reply and tell us what you think.
If you value the Mekong Memo, please consider buying (or gifting!) a paid subscription, sharing it on social media or forwarding this email to someone who might enjoy it. You can also “like” this newsletter by clicking the ❤️ below (or sometimes above, depending on the platform), which helps us get visibility on Substack.