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Mekong Memo Thailand Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is your Mekong Memo Thailand for this week.
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Headlines:
US Tariffs Push Thailand to Brink of Recession
Chinese Investment Weak in EEC, Property
Tourism Hit by Quake, Trade Kerfuffle
ASEAN Forms Trade Defense Front
Thailand Wants 20M "Soft Power Warriors"
Electronic Games Law Advances
Digital Banks On the Way
Financial Crime Crackdown Hits Money Mules
Chip Industry Plans Face Hard Reality Check
Farmers Fight US Food Imports
Building Collapse Sparks Safety Reforms
US Prof Arrested as Speech Crackdown Widens
Coffee Giants Battle in Thai Court
Carbon Market Tests Launch at Map Ta Phut
New Salt Tax Spices Up Food Industry Debate
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US Tariffs Push Thailand to Brink of Recession
Trade tensions with the US are hitting the Thai economy, with new tariffs pushing the country toward technical recession and export declines. The government and business groups are scrambling to negotiate relief, including purchases of US corn and LNG, while also working towards stricter export origin controls. Authorities have dismissed any rumors of raiding reserves or dumping US bonds, saying that current fiscal and monetary policies remain unchanged. KBank is working to help exporters find new markets. Economists warn of GDP contraction as global growth slows, advising stimulus, negotiations, and trade partner diversification.
Read more: Nation Thailand (Recession Threat), Bangkok Post (Technical Recession), Bangkok Post (LNG), Khaosod English (Response), Nation Thailand (Fiscal Response), Bangkok Post (Exporter Relief), Thaiexaminer (Negotiation Details), Thai Examiner (US Visit Delay), Bangkok Post (Currency Impact), Oilprice.com (LNG), Thai Examiner (Trade Choices), Nation Thailand (Food Safety), Nation Thailand (EU FTA)
Chinese Investment Weak in EEC, Property
Chinese investment in the Eastern Economic Corridor is disappointing local stakeholders, as most gains are coming from land sales and not job creation or engagement with Thai contractors. Property associations are pushing the government for stimulus, reasoning that they are needed thanks to weak sales and rising construction costs, made worse by US tariff and earthquake worries. Chinese buyers remain bullish on Bangkok luxury condominiums, though safety and scam issues are shaking confidence.
Read more: Bangkok Post (EEC Investment), Nation Thailand (Stimulus Demand), Bangkok Post (Chinese Buyers)
Tourism Hit by Quake, Trade Kerfuffle
Tourism is under pressure from booking cancellations after the earthquake and because of US trade woes. Songkran spending is down, with an estimated drop of 700,000 tourists. PM Paetongtarn's team is betting on luxury, safety, and new incentives including bigger filming rebates, streamlined immigration, and diversification of travel experiences. Thailand topped 35 million visitors in 2024, but with Chinese guest numbers declining, officials are eyeing wealthy segments and medical tourism. The illegal foreign tour guide problem is affecting major tourist hubs, prompting calls for visa changes and better enforcement.
Read more: Travel and Tour World (Tourism Drop), Nation Thailand (Tourism Strategy), Nation Thailand (Filming Incentives), Bangkok Post (Illegal Guides)
ASEAN Forms Trade Defense Front
PM Anwar Ibrahim visited for ASEAN adviser meetings that included Thaksin, with a focus on bringing some unity to an ASEAN strategy ahead of US trade talks. Thai ministers are traveling to the US as part of plans to launch an ASEAN geoeconomics task force, and the push is on for more digital, AI, and renewables cooperation. Thailand and India are speeding up EU FTA talks in response to Trump’s tariffs. Thai officials see events like CICPE and Belt and Road as levers for widening market access across ASEAN.
Read more: Khaosod English (ASEAN Strategy), Nation Thailand (EU FTA Move), CGTN (CICPE Expo)
Thailand Wants 20M "Soft Power Warriors"
Plans are moving ahead for a new Thailand Creative Culture Agency to roll out in 2026. The goal of the agency is to build 20 million "soft power warriors" by 2027. The scope covers drama, wellness, performing arts, and advertising, with the strategy modeled on South Korea's approach. Prime Minister Paetongtarn is getting global recognition for her support of Thai culture exports and Songkran festival promotion as part of the country's broader economic reset.
Bangkok Post (Soft Power Strategy), Khaosod English (PM Recognition)
Electronic Games Law Advances
A new Game Industry Act (read: electronic games, not gambling) is coming, promising a ratings system, registration regime, tax incentives, and a promotion fund expected by 2026. The gaming market, currently 36.1 billion baht, is expected to grow, but developers have funding shortages and tough foreign competition.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Games Market), Bangkok Post (Gaming Law)
Digital Banks On the Way
The Bank of Thailand has given preliminary digital bank licenses to Krungthai, SCB X, and Ascend Money consortia, all targeting expanded access for underserved users and marginalized borrowers. The process is set for completion by mid year, with service launches expected in 2026. SCB X is refocusing on wealthier clients and wants a full license through partnerships.
Read more: Nation Thailand (Digital Banks), Bangkok Post (SCB X Strategy)
Financial Crime Crackdown Hits Money Mules
Authorities have shut down more than 130,000 mule bank accounts, arrested 869 people this year, and continue to improve laws targeting tech-driven financial crime. The new law holds banks, telecoms, and social media companies responsible for reporting and stopping suspicious activity, with stiff penalties for noncompliance. The SEC is working on fresh rules for crypto providers, targeting mule accounts, and blacklisting problematic wallets. Digital asset businesses, both domestic and offshore, will face new reporting, licensing, and screening mandates.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Mule Accounts), Bangkok Post (Crypto Crackdown), Nation Thailand (Overseas Digital Asset Rules), Bangkok Post (Scam Law), Tilleke (Offshore Regulation)
Chip Industry Plans Face Hard Reality Check
The new National Semiconductor Board is steering a plan for Thailand to move beyond chip assembly into design and fabrication, particularly for EVs and data centers. The policy is intended to train 86,000 engineers by 2030 and attract multinational investment, but faces headwinds over funding, governance, and avoiding past missteps like the Alphatec debacle. Recommendations stress support for fabless startups and a local venture capital ecosystem to keep Thailand in line with global value chains during shifting US-China tech relations.
Read more: ISEAS/Fulcrum
Farmers Fight US Food Imports
Cattle farmers and 60 groups are pushing back on plans for US beef imports, citing hormone treatment concerns and risks to food safety and export market access. The food safety commission warns US tariffs could pressure Thai food laws, with worries about pork and GMO corn imports.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Beef Import Opposition), Nation Thailand (Food Safety Tariffs)
Building Collapse Sparks Safety Reforms
The Chatuchak Auditor General building collapse has killed 37 people, with 57 still missing, and is driving probes into the practices of Chinese contractor and material quality. The BMA has now banned heat-treated steel in high-rises, suspended incentives for some steel suppliers, and mandated inspections after allegations were made about substandard material use. Parallel efforts are underway to improve national disaster tech, with investments in robot-assisted rescue gear, new sensors, and AI tools for early warning and damage assessment.
Read more: Thai Examiner (Building Disaster), Bangkok Post (Steel Ban), Bangkok Post (Disaster Tech), Tilleke (Safety Standards)
US Prof Arrested as Speech Crackdown Widens
The arrest and detention of US academic Paul Chambers on lèse-majesté charges are adding to concerns over Thailand's democratic health, with the US State Department calling for due process. The crackdown comes against a backdrop of growing repression, forced Uyghur deportations, and parliament's move against progressive politicians. Separately, social media campaigns led by security agencies are doxxing pro-democracy activists, leading to digital harassment and judicial targeting. Red Shirt protestors are pushing for justice and amnesty on the 15th anniversary of the April-May 2010 crackdown, calling for reform and abolition of political charges.
Read more: UCA News (Academic Arrest), The Conversation (Democracy Analysis), The Hill (US Response), The Record Media (Activist Harassment), Peoples Dispatch (Red Shirt Calls)
Coffee Giants Battle in Thai Court
A Thai court has halted Nescafé production and distribution after a clash between Nestlé and its former joint venture partner QCP. Both sides are locked in legal action over the brand's future and allegations that Nestlé is undermining Thai coffee. The dispute, tied to a 52-year old joint venture and annual in-home coffee sales of 33 billion baht, could reshape the country's instant coffee market if unresolved. Nestlé is defending its trademark rights while QCP is claiming market sabotage.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Legal Proceedings), Nation Thailand (Market Impact)
Carbon Market Tests Launch at Map Ta Phut
The Industrial Estate Authority and World Bank are piloting a carbon management scheme at Map Ta Phut, with industry leaders including PTT and Siam Cement on board. The project covers CO2 reduction technologies, feasibility studies for capture, and green finance solutions, as regulators work to meet net zero targets and comply with new EU carbon tariffs set to bite in 2026. Plans include performance-linked green loans and carbon credit trading to entice industry buy-in.
Read more: Bangkok Post
New Salt Tax Spices Up Food Industry Debate
The government is preparing to roll out a new salt tax aimed at reducing sodium consumption, starting with snacks and tiered by sodium content. Food industry leaders, including Thai President Foods, are asking for public hearings to question implementation and tax collection issues. Opinions vary on whether the policy will actually shift consumer behavior or simply add to food costs for manufacturers and shoppers.
Read more: Bangkok Post
That’s it for this week, thanks for reading!
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