Myanmar 20240702: Dire, Precarious, Escalating

Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.

Jul 02, 2024

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Here is your Mekong Memo this week for Myanmar. As always, your feedback and paid subscriptions are very much appreciated and help support us to continue keeping you informed.

Headlines:

Japanese Exec Caught in Rice Price Crackdown

Poverty Surge Shrinks Middle Class by Half

Displaced Have Medical and Food Shortages

Myanmar's Future a Three-Way Tug of War

Floods Force Mass Evacuation in Kachin State

Central Bank Rebuffs War Crime Accusations

Developments in China-Myanmar Relations

Rice Federation Offers a Grain of Hope

Zin Mar Aung Calls for International Support

Prison Shuffle as Jails Overflow

Import License Enforcement Begins

Three Pagodas Crossing Closure Squeezes Trade

Thai Developer Hit as Myanmar Buyers Vanish

Japanese Exec Caught in Rice Price Crackdown

The military government's latest target appears to be rice sellers. They've nabbed Hiroshi Kasamatsu, a director of Aeon Orange, along with dozens of local businessmen for selling rice well above official rates. The dragnet swept up 62 suspects across major cities, with violators facing potential prison time and fines. It's another blow to Myanmar's already battered economy, with Japan now pushing for Kasamatsu's release.

Poverty Surge Shrinks Middle Class by Half

The country’s economic woes continue to bite. A UNDP report paints a grim picture with 75% of the population - that's 42 million people - now facing poverty, with 13.3 million struggling to put food on the table. Development aid through the UN has fallen by more than 40% since 2020, making a bad situation worse. UNDP isn’t throwing in the towel, though. They've helped over two million people and aim to reach eight million by 2025.

Displaced Have Medical and Food Shortages

In Rakhine state, about 10,000 displaced people, mostly Rohingya, are in desperate need of food and medical aid as fighting rages between junta forces and the Arakan Army. Hospitals are shuttered, travel is restricted, and villagers are being forced into military service. The World Food Program's warehouse went up in smoke, and Medecins Sans Frontieres has hit pause on its medical activities in northern Rakhine due to extreme violence.

Myanmar's Future a Three-Way Tug of War

Insurgent groups now control significant territory, but the junta's grip on urban areas and key assets remains firm. What's next? Elections, junta collapse, or prolonged conflict are all on the table. Meanwhile, millions are displaced, and the socio-economic toll is mounting. The West's appetite for rare earth elements is adding fuel to the fire, destabilizing the region and causing headaches for neighbors like India.

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