Myanmar 20240716: Thorough, Objective, Concise
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Headlines:
Economic Turmoil as Banks Limit Withdrawals
Crisis Reaches Critical Fatigue Point
Aspirations of a Federal System Stymied by Ethnic Challenges
Genocidal Violence Escalates in Rakhine State
Chinese and Western Peace Approaches Diverge
Massive Chinese Arms Order Raises Concerns
Fact-Checking or Propaganda?
Spring Revolution Unites Diverse Groups
Japan Eyes New Opportunities
Thai Companies Pulling Back
Unpacking ASEAN’s Relationship with Myanmar
Economic Turmoil as Banks Limit Withdrawals
The nation faces severe economic instability as private banks impose daily cash withdrawal limits to prevent bank runs. The kyat has plummeted to record lows against other currencies, eroding public trust in financial institutions. Citizens are withdrawing deposits and investing in gold and dollars as a hedge against uncertainty. Gold prices have surged, made worse by international market trends. The junta's punitive actions against banks and gold dealers have further fueled the problems, leading to widespread economic distress.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Withdrawal Limits), The Irrawaddy (Currency Plunge, Gold)
Crisis Reaches Critical Fatigue Point
The protracted crisis has reached a fatigue point among domestic and international actors. As the military junta maintains power, international attention is waning, leading to reduced aid and support. The conflict has resulted in widespread suffering and escalating humanitarian needs. Despite numerous sanctions and diplomatic efforts, tangible progress remains elusive, raising concerns about the region's future stability.
Read more: Bangkok Post
Aspirations of a Federal System Stymied by Ethnic Challenges
Myanmar's ethnic landscape is putting up some big hurdles to establishing an effective federal system of government. The collapse of a China-led ceasefire in Shan State is just the latest setback in a long series of ongoing conflicts. Resistance groups say that they support a federal Myanmar but face internal divisions. Overlapping claims and tensions among groups like the Shan, Kachin, and Wa further complicate the situation. China's strategic interests and influence remain significant, adding another layer of complexity to peace efforts.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Genocidal Violence Escalates in Rakhine State
Rakhine State is seeing a sharp rise in violence and human rights abuses, with increasing threats of genocidal violence against the Rohingya minority. The Myanmar military and the Arakan Army (AA) have doubled down on their conflict, deepening the severe humanitarian crisis. Reports indicate forced recruitment, landmine placement, and widespread displacement. The international community, including the UN, is calling for immediate de-escalation and an adherence to international law to prevent further atrocities.
Read more: United States Mission to the United Nations (Joint Statement), Genocide Watch (Genocide Warning), Genocide Watch (Rohingya Genocide)
Chinese and Western Peace Approaches Diverge
China's approach to peace in Myanmar is driven by economic interests, pulling on ties with the military and ethnic groups to protect investment. Western efforts are more typically focused on promoting democratic values and human rights, often with conditions. China engages all parties pragmatically, seemingly primarily concerned with results that benefit its projects. Western methods face resistance and limited success. Lasting peace may require finding a middle group between these two different styles of engagement.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Massive Chinese Arms Order Raises Concerns
China is fulfilling a substantial arms order placed by the junta, including fighter jets, armored vehicles, and naval ships. This development fuels concerns about escalating violence and regional instability. The arms deal is once again indicative of the strength of Beijing's alliance with Myanmar's military, despite international condemnation of human rights abuses. Analysts warn that the influx of Chinese weapons could further entrench the military regime and hold back efforts for peace and democracy in Myanmar.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Fact-Checking or Propaganda?
The junta has put in place an "anti-disinformation team" under the auspices of the Ministry of Information, ostensibly to combat fake news. The team, overseen by Major-General Zaw Min Tun, scrutinizes social media and news outlets for content critical of the military regime. Critics argue that the team's efforts amount to propaganda, as they frequently label reports of military abuses as false without substantial evidence, contributing to the regime's broader strategy of controlling information.
Read more: Frontier
Spring Revolution Unites Diverse Groups
The 2021 military coup sparked a nationwide "Spring Revolution," bringing together a diverse mix of ethnic groups who were inclined to fight against decades of oppression. Their struggle combines peaceful protests, civil disobedience, and armed resistance. The revolution is still facing big challenges, including misinformation campaigns (see previous article), geopolitical complexities, and, to some extent relatedly, limited international support. Success will hinge on their ability to retain unity among revolutionary factions, clear common objectives, and diplomatic finesse.
Read more: Eurasia Review
Japan Eyes New Opportunities
Japanese companies are reportedly on the lookout for new business opportunities despite the obvious political, economic and social risks. Yazaki, a Japanese auto parts maker, continues profitable operations, taking advantage of local and Thai labor. Startups like Plus Impact and Open Up Group are tapping into Myanmar's skilled workforce, offering remote IT jobs and hiring civil engineering graduates.
Read more: Nikkei Asia
Thai Companies Pulling Back
Recent events have prompted several Thai companies to withdraw their operations from Myanmar. Despite the optimism shown by the Japanese in the previous article, Thais say that increasing violence and instability have made it difficult for businesses to operate safely and efficiently.
Read more: Khaosod English
Unpacking ASEAN’s Relationship with Myanmar
Despite diplomatic efforts, ASEAN leaders have struggled to implement the Five-Point Consensus intended to resolve the Myanmar conflict. This online event will feature Moe Thuzar, an expert on ASEAN and Myanmar’s external relations, discussing the evolving relationship between ASEAN and Myanmar. Thuzar is a Senior Fellow and Coordinator for the Myanmar Studies Programme at the ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute.
Event Details:
Date: July 17, 2024
Time: 9:00 AM US Eastern Time / 8:00 PM Bangkok Time
Read more: Stimson Center (Details), Zoom (Registration)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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