Myanmar 20241001: Downgraded, Delusional, Skeptical
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Japan in Diplomatic Downgrade
No ‘Fractured State’ on the Horizon
Execution Rumors as Psychological Warfare Tactic
Young Men Forced to Fight in Desperate War
Delusional BRICS Bid Faces Skepticism
Desperation Drives Surge in Organ Sales
NUG Rejects U.S. Funding Claims
Election Offer Met with Skepticism
Food Supply Adequate Despite Flood Damages
Monks Face Increasing Persecution of Junta Rule
Pope Francis Offers Safe Haven to ASSK
Japan in Diplomatic Downgrade
Japan has decided not to replace its ambassador to Myanmar, downgrading its diplomatic ties in response to the military rule. The move mirrors similar actions by the U.S. and the U.K. and is likely to affect Japanese businesses operating in Myanmar. With Japan's lower-level diplomatic presence, companies in sectors like infrastructure development are reconsidering the risks amid rising competition from China and Russia, both of which maintain strong ties with the junta.
Read more: The Diplomat (Downgrade), Nikkei Asia (Impact)
No ‘Fractured State’ on the Horizon
Despite concerns of Myanmar descending into a fractured state, the country’s resistance groups have defied expectations, regaining control over two thirds of the population from the junta. Analysts’ comparisons to failed states overlook the growing political linkages among these groups, who remain committed to establishing a federal democracy. While the military continues to rely on airstrikes and targeting civilians, the resistance has demonstrated a surprising resilience and determination to unify the country in the post-junta era.
Read more: The Diplomat
Execution Rumors as Psychological Warfare Tactic
Recent rumors about the execution of political prisoners in Myanmar's Insein Prison appear to be part of a psychological operation orchestrated by the military junta. While no verified executions occurred, reports spread fear among prisoners and their families. Observers are urged to approach such rumors cautiously, as the junta may be using this disinformation to distract from its battlefield losses and emotionally manipulate the population.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Young Men Forced to Fight in Desperate War
Facing manpower shortages and military defeats, the junta has resorted to forced conscription, targeting young men from poor families. Many are taken from their homes or off the streets and sent to the frontlines, often with little to no training. Families are left devastated, uncertain of their loved ones' fate. The military wants to conscript 60,000 men by year-end as it struggles to retain control, but widespread fear and distrust are pushing more citizens toward resistance.
Read more: The Guardian
Delusional BRICS Bid Faces Skepticism
The junta is seeking observer status in the BRICS bloc, in an apparent attempt to secure much-needed international recognition and financial support. Experts are labeling the bid as "delusional," however, with the regime facing significant credibility issues due to its ongoing internal conflict and lack of legitimacy. While China and Russia may entertain the notion, the junta’s human rights abuses and unstable governance present substantial hurdles to acceptance. The junta’s quest for global acceptance appears increasingly desperate as it tries to hold on to power.
Read more: South China Morning Post
Desperation Drives Surge in Organ Sales
Poverty and debt are pushing many to sell their kidneys, with some traveling to India to undergo illegal transplants. Since the coup, the economic crisis has worsened, and sellers receive only around $2,500 for an organ, while middlemen profit. Forged documents and fake family relationships enable these transactions, as strict laws require donor-recipient ties. The booming illicit trade is indicative of the profound desperation facing the country's population as they seek financial relief.
Read more: Mercator (Organ Selling Crisis), CNN (Organ Trade), Frontier Myanmar (Sales Factors)
NUG Rejects U.S. Funding Claims
The National Unity Government (NUG) has denied allegations circulated by junta supporters claiming it receives $200 million annually from the United States. These accusations, which surfaced on pro-regime Telegram channels, claim that the U.S. is funding the NUG to undermine China’s influence in Myanmar. Both the NUG and the U.S. Embassy have called the claims false, saying that U.S. support is non-lethal and focused exclusively on promoting democracy and human rights.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Election Offer Met with Skepticism
The junta has invited insurgent groups and pro-democracy People's Defense Forces (PDF) to participate in political negations and a proposed 2025 election, urging them to abandon their armed struggle. However, the National Unity Government (NUG) and multiple rebel groups rejected the offer, calling it a deceptive attempt by the junta to improve its international image — a ploy to divide resistance forces while excluding main opposition figures, like Aung San Suu Kyi, from participation. Rebel leaders, including those from the Karen National Union and Chin National Army, dismissed the invitation, citing the junta’s history of insincerity and ongoing violence.
Read more: Radio Free Asia, Le Monde
Food Supply Adequate Despite Flood Damages
Despite severe flooding caused by Typhoon Yagi, which damaged nearly 5,000 acres of rice farmlands, the Myanmar Rice Federation has assured that the country has enough rice stockpiled to avoid food shortages. The junta reported that 750,000 acres were impacted by flooding, but the country still exported over 200,000 tonnes of rice in August, earning $97 million. There are worries in some quarters, however, as domestic rice prices have spiked thanks to market restrictions imposed by the junta.
Read more: Mizzima
Monks Face Increasing Persecution of Junta Rule
The crackdown on pro-democracy activists has extended to including revered Buddhist monks. Prominent figures like Sayadaw Bhaddanta Munindabhivamsa were killed by the regime as hostility towards the Sangha remains strong. Despite persecution, many monks have become central to the resistance, supporting displaced citizens and turning against the junta by refusing alms. The country’s civil war has pushed thousands into refugee centers run by monks, allowing the Sangha’s to continue to perform its central role in Myanmar’s social fabric.
Read more: Tricycle
Pope Francis Offers Safe Haven to ASSK
Pope Francis has offered the Vatican as a refuge for Myanmar’s former leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been detained since the military coup in 2021. The pontiff expressed concern for her situation and made the offer during a recent conversation with Jesuits in Asia, following a meeting with Suu Kyi's son in Rome. The gesture reflects the Pope’s ongoing efforts to advocate for her release and provide humanitarian support.
Read more: South China Morning Post
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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