Myanmar 20241008: Sanguine, Polarized, Limpid
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Census Controversy as Junta Begins the Count
Brotherhood Alliance Shifts Balance of Power
Junta's Peace Offer Met with Skepticism
Tough Times for Garment Workers
Solar Energy Adoption on the Rise
Conscription Law Activated After 65 Years
Political Prisoners Face Dire Conditions
China-US Rivalry Impacts Myanmar's Civil War
ASEAN Struggles to Address Myanmar Problem
Rice Export Under Scrutiny
Junta Ramps Up Tax Collection Efforts
Myanmar’s Women Find Refuge in Soccer
Census Controversy as Junta Begins the Count
The junta has begun a nationwide census, claiming it's a step towards holding promised elections. The census is expected to gather data on population, ethnicity, and religion. Critics argue it's a tool for counterinsurgency and for flushing out dissidents. The junta says that it plans to complete the count by mid-October, covering only about 30 million people in major cities under its control. Civil society groups have called the planned elections a sham lacking legitimacy, with scores of parties barred and dissolved, including the former ruling National League for Democracy.
Read more: NHK World (Video), Frontier Myanmar (Counterinsurgency Tool), CIVICUS Monitor (Election Concerns)
Brotherhood Alliance Shifts Balance of Power
The Brotherhood Alliance, a powerful bloc of ethnic armies, has demonstrated its ability to dismantle core elements of the regime's power base by seizing Lashio, the administrative seat of northern Shan State. This milestone victory has placed the Myanmar military in its most vulnerable position since the 2021 coup. With most of northern Shan captured, the Brotherhood can now project force beyond the borderlands and into the center of the country, directly pressuring Mandalay, Myanmar's second-largest city.
Read more: IISS Myanmar Conflict Map
Junta's Peace Offer Met with Skepticism
Myanmar's military council issued a statement calling for resistance forces to lay down arms and participate in regime-organized elections. The offer repeats previous conditions: disarm, become border guard forces or militias, and establish parties to participate in elections. This approach has been unanimously rejected by the National Unity Government, People's Defence Forces, and other Spring Revolution forces. Critics argue it's a strategy to avoid dialogue and discredit legitimate opposition while projecting an image of inclusive elections to China and neighboring countries.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Regime's Offer), The Irrawaddy (Skepticism)
Tough Times for Garment Workers
Garment workers are face dire challenges due to a combination of stagnant wages, soaring inflation, and falling exchange rates. These factors have made it increasingly difficult for workers to meet their basic needs. The ongoing crisis in the country has exacerbated the situation, leaving many in the garment industry struggling to make ends meet.
Read more: Ecotextile (Login required)
Solar Energy Adoption on the Rise
Solar energy adoption is increasing thanks to rising oil prices and electricity costs. Solar products and related items are becoming more accessible in the market. Unstable electricity supply and increasing bills are driving consumers to opt for solar energy as a reliable and sustainable alternative. Chinese companies, including Sandisolar, are leading the solar market in Myanmar, with projects expected to grow this year.
Read more: Xinhua
Conscription Law Activated After 65 Years
Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing has activated a conscription law after 65 years of dormancy. All men aged 18-35 and women aged 18-27 are now required to serve in the military for at least two years. The law was enacted in 1959 but remained inactive until February 2024. The regime is estimated to have forced 25,000 conscripts into military training camps within six months since April, as it seeks to boost troop numbers against widespread armed opposition.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Political Prisoners Face Dire Conditions
More than 20 political prisoners have been killed in Myanmar this year, according to the Political Prisoners Network Myanmar. Around 10 prisoners were tortured to death, while 12 died due to insufficient medical care in various prisons across the country. Since the 2021 coup, at least 101 political prisoners have died due to inadequate medical treatment. The situation highlights the severe human rights violations occurring in Myanmar's detention facilities.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
China-US Rivalry Impacts Myanmar's Civil War
The geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States is influencing the civil war. China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to Myanmar and subsequent US State Department talks with opposition leaders are indicative of the dynamics at play. China's interests in Myanmar, including access to the Indian Ocean and Belt and Road Initiative projects, are shaping its approach to the conflict. The US supports democratic forces but is unlikely to provide substantial material support.
Read more: Eurasia Review
ASEAN Struggles to Address Myanmar Problem
ASEAN's efforts to resolve the Myanmar crisis have made little progress since the adoption of the Five-Point Consensus in 2021. The bloc's modus operandi, requiring decisions based on consensus, has constrained successive ASEAN chairs. Only two of ASEAN's 10 members share land borders with Myanmar, limiting engagement. The protracted conflict has left a third of Myanmar's 55 million people in need of humanitarian aid, a disgrace in need of urgent resolution.
Read more: Yahoo News (ASEAN Role), Bangkok Post (ASEAN Challenges)
Rice Export Under Scrutiny
The Myanmar Rice Federation (MRF) has called for careful consideration of rice exports due to changing weather patterns and climate change impacts. Natural disasters and severe weather events are affecting agriculture in many countries, including Myanmar. While the country plans to continue exporting 200,000 tonnes of rice each month, there are growing concerns about maintaining self-sufficiency and price stability in the domestic market.
Read more: Mizzima
Junta Ramps Up Tax Collection Efforts
Myanmar's junta has set an ambitious tax collection target of over 9.3 trillion Kyats for the 2024-25 fiscal year, up from about 8 trillion Kyats in the previous year. The regime is exploring various means to increase tax collection, including amending laws to collect taxes from Myanmar expats starting October 1, 2023. The junta's push for increased tax revenue comes at a time of dramatic economic slowdown, falling foreign investments, and escalating conflicts, as it desperately looks for more funds for defense spending.
Read more: Mizzima
And now for something completely different.
While the focus of The Memo is on news for business, we often wrap with a less business-focused article.
Myanmar’s Women Find Refuge in Soccer
In Mae Sot, Thailand, Burmese women who fled Myanmar’s military regime are finding empowerment and joy through soccer, thanks to the nonprofit PlayOnside. Despite societal norms that normally discourage their participation in sports, the women—many exiled mothers—practice and compete in the newly formed Borderland Women’s League. For them, soccer is more than a game; it’s a therapeutic escape from the hardships of exile.
Read more: New York Times
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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