Myanmar 20241029: Discerning, Paradigmatic, Pressing
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
China's Export Ban Creates Shortages
Myanmar Turns to Starlink
Calculated Support for Junta Backfires
Chinese Military Fires Warning Shots
Military Control Slipping Away
Rebels Seize Strategic Mining Hub
Ethnic Leaders Call For Revolution
Junta Demands Migrant Worker Wage Remittance
Press Freedom Under Siege
ASEAN Dialogue Strategy is Doomed to Fail
Revitalizing Myanmar’s Puppet Art
China's Export Ban Creates Shortages
China's ban on exports to Myanmar has caused severe shortages of food, medicine and consumer goods. The restrictions, imposed following increased fighting along the border, have hit areas reliant on Chinese imports particularly hard. Basic items like cooking oil, coffee, instant noodles and soap are running low. China closed multiple border crossings with rebel-controlled towns in Kachin State and northern Shan State. The junta's own import restrictions and crackdown on "illegal" cross-border trade have worsened the situation.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (Supply Impact), RFA (Border Closures)
Myanmar Turns to Starlink
Facing ongoing internet shutdowns and restricted access to communication apps, Myanmar residents are increasingly turning to Starlink for internet connectivity. Since the 2021 coup, more than 300 internet blackouts have disrupted access, leading residents to look for alternatives, including less secure VPNs and private networks. Despite lacking official licensing in Myanmar, over 3,000 Starlink units are now reportedly active, supporting humanitarian work, education, and other essential communications during prolonged outages.
Read more: Tech in Asia
Calculated Support for Junta Backfires
China’s strategic backing of Myanmar’s junta, including weapons sales and selective border closures, is in aid of trying to maintain stability along its border and protect its economic interests, yet the plan risks backfiring. The junta’s weakening control has seen rebel forces, particularly the Three Brotherhood Alliance, seize substantial amounts of territory and natural resources, challenging Beijing’s influence. Despite frustrations, China continues to pressure ethnic armies to bring an end to hostilities, fearing that Myanmar’s democratic aspirations and ties with U.S.-backed groups could disrupt Beijing’s agenda of a pliable, stable regime on its doorstep.
Read more: Reuters (Border Conflict), RFA (China Interests)
Chinese Military Fires Warning Shots
Chinese forces fired warning shots at a Myanmar military jet that flew too close to the border while bombing the rebel-held town of Namkham. The fighter jet made multiple passes near Chinese airspace, prompting repeated warning shots from Chinese troops deployed in Nongdao. The aircraft eventually dropped bombs on a rebel base and civilian areas, though no casualties were reported. Tensions remain high as fighting continues along the Chinese border.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Military Control Slipping Away
Three well-armed militias launched a surprise offensive in northeastern Myanmar a year ago, breaking the military regime's grip on power. The military's control, supported by Russia and China, has crumbled with the loss of dozens of outposts, bases and strategic cities. The rebels' rapid gains of territory has inspired others to attack across the country, pushing the fighting toward population centers like Mandalay. The military leadership admits recapturing lost territory will be challenging.
Read more: NBC News (Military Losses), AP News (Rebel Gains)
Rebels Seize Strategic Mining Hub
The Kachin Independence Army has taken control of Panwa, a major rare earth mining hub that supplies China. The capture disrupts shipments of elements used in clean energy and other technologies. Rare earth mining in Myanmar is concentrated in Kachin state around Panwa and Chipwe, adjacent to China's Yunnan province.
Read more: Bangkok Post, Mining.com
Ethnic Leaders Call For Revolution
The chairman of the Kachin Independence Organization has called on all able-bodied adults to join the fight against Myanmar's dictatorship. The call came during a speech marking the group's 64th anniversary. The KIA has supported new revolutionary groups opposing the junta since the 2021 coup and coordinated anti-junta offensives over a wide swath of the nation.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
Junta Demands Migrant Worker Wage Remittance
Myanmar’s junta now requires migrant workers in Laos to remit 25% of their earnings through official channels, pushing financial strain on workers paid in currencies like Chinese yuan. The mandate follows similar policies imposed on Myanmar laborers in Thailand, where wages are swapped at low official rates, benefiting the junta’s dwindling foreign reserves. The National Unity Government has condemned these measures as exploitative, as Myanmar’s economy, hampered by conflict and governance issues, continues its downward spiral with 2024 GDP growth forecasted at only 1%.
Read more: RFA
Press Freedom Under Siege
Myanmar’s media landscape remains fraught with danger. Two journalists were recently detained by the Kachin Independence Army, raising concerns over press freedom abuses on both sides of the conflict. Separately, Reporters Without Borders has launched a media hub offering resources like cameras, laptops, and safety training to journalists reporting on the conflict. As Myanmar’s military continues its crackdown, journalists work under constant risk, navigating severe restrictions and trying to stay safe while continuing to report the truth.
Read more: Mizzima (Journalist detentions), IFJ (Press Freedom), VOA (Training)
ASEAN Dialogue Strategy is Doomed to Fail
ASEAN's ongoing work to promote dialogue with Myanmar’s junta, led by Min Aung Hlaing, are expected to backfire, only enabling the regime to regroup for further violence. While China and Russia lend support, ASEAN’s "all-inclusive" dialogue approach risks allowing the junta to simply extend its grip on power. Experts argue for excluding the junta from talks entirely, calling for economic restrictions and cutting military resources. Such measures, advocates suggest, may ultimately lead to internal fractures within the junta and pave the way for genuine negotiations with resistance forces.
Read more: The Irrawaddy
And now for something completely different.
While the focus of The Memo is on news for business, we often wrap up with a less business-focused article. Things are gloomy in Myanmar these days, and there isn’t much good news to share, but we always love a good story of the arts:
Revitalizing Myanmar’s Puppet Art
As Myanmar's traditional puppetry art, Yoke The, faces extinction, dedicated practitioners are begging youth to join in preservation efforts. Once a royal and religious staple, the art form has dwindled, partly (mostly?) due to limited financial returns. Artists and institutions like the National University of Arts and Culture are reintroducing puppetry into their programs, trying to spark a cultural revival through training and competitions. Enthusiasts hope a new generation of performers will sustain this unique art, both at home and on international stages, but the outlook for the art isn’t bright.
Read more: China.org.cn
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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