Myanmar 20241105: Evocative, Modest, Wanton

Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.

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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.

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Headlines:

Junta Reaches Out to China

Resistance Forces Gain Ground

Agricultural Sector Faces Uncertainty

Junta Blames Foreign Instigators for Unrest

Resistance Factions Vie for Control

Women's Double Revolution

Myanmar Ranks 10th for Journalist Killings

Garment Workers Face Ongoing Risks

Displaced Civil Servants Left in the Lurch

Junta Crony's Telecom Empire

Journalists Freed by Anti-Junta Group

ASEAN Calls for Myanmar Peace

Myanmar Targets Full Electricity by 2030

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Junta Reaches Out to China

As the military struggles with rising resistance near the Chinese border, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing is set to meet Chinese officials in Kunming for three regional summits. Recently, Myanmar sent former military intelligence figures, reinstated by the junta, to engage Chinese think tanks on diplomatic and security matters, in an apparent attempt to reinforce relations before Hlaing’s visit. China’s interests in stability and resource projects have led to a pragmatic approach toward Myanmar’s isolated regime, despite Western sanctions and regional concerns over escalating violence.

Read more: Irrawaddy (Intelligence Ties), AP News (Summit Focus)

Resistance Forces Gain Ground

Opposition forces are making gains against the military regime with the support of ethnic armies. The Bamar People's Liberation Army is expected to extend operations to central Myanmar after aligning with ethnic allies, while a rival opposition alliance has successfully pushed back the military from several regions in Shan state it controlled following the 2021 coup. Both alliances have said that they will continue the offensive until the junta is removed from power.

Read more: Irrawaddy (BPLA Plans), Radio Free Asia (Three Brotherhood Alliance), Voice of America (Dialogue Impossible)

Agricultural Sector Faces Uncertainty

The agricultural sector performed relatively well in 2023 but faces challenges in 2024. Agriculture provided work and food security for millions after declines in previous years, but labor shortages caused by conscription-induced migration, controls on farmgate prices, suspension of some loans, the expanding conflict, and flooding affecting an estimated 1 million people across 70 townships raise concerns about the sector's prospects. These developments jeopardize the sustainability of the modest 2023 growth and threaten the livelihoods and food security of many in Myanmar.

Read more: Fulcrum

Junta Blames Foreign Instigators for Unrest

The junta is blaming foreign provocations for fueling internal conflicts and violence. According to the regime's leader, there have been external instigations stirring political, ethnic, and religious tensions with the intent to incite conflicts, leading to violent acts. He emphasized that Myanmar's citizens should respect each other's faith and foster unity for the nation's welfare. The current conflicts, he noted, stem from the failure to resolve political issues politically, with foreign influences recklessly driving violent acts internally.

Read more: Nation Thailand