Myanmar 20241224: Defining, Unpredictable, Deep
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Junta Loses Ground in Western Offensive
Internal Spies Undermine Military
China Dominates EV Market
Cholera Outbreak Triggers Thailand Border Alert
Foreign Investment Plummets
Doctors, Teachers, Forced into Sex Work
Junta Expands Price Controls
Military Draft Sparks Yangon Arrests
Smuggled Goods a Lifeline for Arakan Region
Displacement Crisis Worsens
Junta Projects Growth Despite WB Warning
Thailand Hosts Regional Crisis Talks
Junta Forms Development Commissions
Locally-Made Weapons Fuel Conflict in Manipur
Currency Policies Push Economy Toward Collapse
Junta Loses Ground in Western Offensive
The Arakan Army captured the military's Western Command headquarters in Ann, a major setback for the junta in Rakhine State. The rebels detained two senior officers and released drone footage showing soldiers surrendering. The AA now controls 14 of 17 townships in the western state. In a parallel development, ethnic rebels in Chin state have now claimed control of 90% of Mindat and Falam townships. The military maintains control of some of the more important areas including Sittwe and the Chinese-backed Kyaukphyu port, but their grasp appears ever-more tenuous.
Read more: RFA (Base Capture), Irrawaddy (Military Response)
Internal Spies Undermine Military
The military needs to root out a growing network of internal spies known as "Watermelons" working for pro-democracy rebels, if it is to stay in power. A BBC investigation reveals these agents, including high-ranking officers, provide critical intelligence on troop movements and operations to resistance forces. The military now controls less than 25% of Myanmar's land territory. A specialized resistance unit manages the spy network, though discovered agents face execution.
Read more: BBC
China Dominates EV Market
Chinese electric vehicle brands dominated Yangon's Christmas motor show, with JMEV, BAIC, and LEAP Motor featured. Event organizers noted increasing EV adoption in Myanmar, with BYD leading in both apparent quality and technology. As of October 2024, Myanmar has registered 5,816 electric cars, including three passenger buses, following a 2023 pilot project launch. Infrastructure challenges remain, particularly regarding a dearth of charging stations.
Read more: Xinhua
Cholera Outbreak Triggers Thailand Border Alert
Thai authorities have ordered increased surveillance along the Myanmar border following a cholera outbreak in Shwe Kokko town that caused 2 deaths and 300 infections. Two suspected cases were detected in Thailand’s Tak province. The Thai defense ministry has established checkpoints, quarantine spots, and an emergency operations center. Preventive measures include monitoring diarrhea patients and food quality during New Year celebrations.
Read more: Bangkok Post
Foreign Investment Plummets
Foreign direct investment has dropped by more than 50% in the first eight months of fiscal year 2024-25, falling from US$587 million to just US$235 million. Investments from Singapore and China decreased from US$553 million to US$140 million. Only three FDI projects worth US$36 million were recorded in Special Economic Zones. Political instability, exchange rate volatility, sanctions, and power shortages continue to deter big-money investors.
Read more: Mizzima
Doctors, Teachers, Forced into Sex Work
Medical professionals and teachers are turning to sex work as serious economic hardship continues to dog the nation. A 26-year-old doctor typically earns US$415 monthly in Mandalay, while sex workers report double that income. The people are facing 26% inflation, power shortages, agricultural disruptions, and reduced cross-border trade. The kyat has dropped 40% against the dollar this year, with half the population now living in poverty.
Read more: Bangkok Post
Junta Expands Price Controls
The military regime has extended price controls on goods from rice and cooking oil to eggs, meat, and fish. Officials are warning retailers that they will be arrested for non-compliance. Yangon authorities have set prices at up to 3,700 kyat for 10 eggs, for example. Some store owners report that they have stopped egg sales completely as wholesale prices are higher than the mandated retail prices.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Military Draft Sparks Yangon Arrests
Following a recent military service mandate for males aged 18-35, authorities have increased arrests in Yangon. The Rangoon Scout Network has reported 59 detention cases so far in early December. Local residents report widespread arrests during street patrols, home inspections, and targeted raids. Young men, to try to limit risk, are reducing nighttime activities, with some fleeing to border areas or looking for ways to leave the country.
Read more: BNI Online
Smuggled Goods a Lifeline for Arakan Region
The Arakan region relies heavily on smuggled commodities from India and Bangladesh due to military-imposed supply route blockades. Daily boat arrivals deliver essential items including cooking oil, biscuits, soaps, and batteries. Fuel prices have skyrocketed, with diesel prices rising from 12,000 to 40,000 kyat per liter.
Read more: The Diplomat
Displacement Crisis Worsens
Myanmar's displaced population reached 3.4 million by December 2024. More than 52,000 refugees have entered Thailand since February 2021, while at least 70,000 sought protection in India. Manipur (India) authorities have told 6,000 Myanmar refugees to return by December 2024, with extensions until March 2025 for families with school children. The most urgent needs include food, medical care, and winterization materials.
Read more: ReliefWeb
Junta Projects Growth Despite WB Warning
Finance Minister Win Shein announced a targeted economic growth rate of 3.8% for 2024-2025 at UMFCCI's annual meeting, expecting 2.4% GDP growth in the first six months. The World Bank has contradicted this outlook, expecting a 1% GDP contraction through March 2025 due to natural disasters, conflict, and commodity shortages.
Read more: Mizzima
Thailand Hosts Regional Crisis Talks
Bangkok scheduled two regional meetings on Myanmar. Thursday's session was focused on border security and transnational crime with representatives from Bangladesh, China, India, Laos, Myanmar, and Thailand. Friday's extended consultation addresses implementing ASEAN's five-point consensus. Malaysia has been advocating for increased efforts to reintegrate Myanmar into the regional bloc, but the discussions do not appear to have led to any substantive outcomes.
Read more: Bangkok Post (Regional Meetings)
Junta Forms Development Commissions
The military announced three new development commissions to address infrastructure and economic problems. The Electricity and Energy Development Commission is to target power shortages, with daily demand at 5,500 megawatts compared to only 2,800 megawatts of production. Industrial Development and Agriculture commissions are to focus on factory closures and overall agricultural productivity.
Read more: Mizzima
Locally-Made Weapons Fuel Conflict in Manipur
Security forces in Manipur have seized a cache of Myanmar-made weapons, including MA-4 assault rifles, pistols, and bulletproof vests, smuggled through the porous India-Myanmar border. Over the past six months, militants have increasingly sourced arms and military gear from Myanmar, exploiting a poorly fenced 1,643-km border. Seized items include uniforms, vests, and even communication equipment, causing worries to turn to concerns about the militarization of ethnic clashes in the region.
Read more: Hindustan Times
Currency Policies Push Economy Toward Collapse
The junta enforces manipulated exchange rates, siphoning 33% of exporters' earnings to fund its operations. Exporters convert a portion of foreign income at rates far below market value, undermining their profits. Combined with heavy money-printing and sanctions, inflation has soared, staples' prices have risen 426% since 2021, and the kyat remains unstable. These policies erode legitimate exports, distort economic signals, and drive poverty, threatening an already fragile economy while funding the junta’s struggling war efforts.
Read more: Livemint
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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