Myanmar 20241231: Diligent, Besieged, Impressionable
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Civil War Reaches Tipping Point
China's Myanmar Strategy Shifts
India Recalibrates Myanmar Policy
Labor Crisis Hits Manufacturing
Tourism Numbers Plummet
Chinese Investment in Resources Continues
Malaysia Cracks Down on Myanmar Migrants
Cross-Border Crime Draws Chinese Response
Conscription Drives Youth Exodus
Health Crisis Emerges on Thai Border
Civil War Reaches Tipping Point
The junta now controls less than 25% of Myanmar's territory as ethnic armed groups make big strides. The Arakan Army has captured 14 of 18 townships in Rakhine state, including the strategic western command headquarters and coastal town of Gwa. The army reportedly is still suffering from internal deterioration with "Watermelons" - soldier-spies with pro-democracy sympathies - undermining it from within. China's attempts to protect its interests by pressuring rebels have failed, with groups so far refusing to return captured territories.
Read more: The Federal (Territorial Control), The Statesman (Internal Fractures)
China's Myanmar Strategy Shifts
China has adopted a dual approach in Myanmar, engaging with both the junta and ethnic armed groups to protect its investments. Beijing's primary concern is the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, which it sees as critical for reducing dependence on the Malacca Strait (a potential chokepoint). Despite funding infrastructure projects through the junta, China is seeing increasing anti-Chinese sentiment and attacks on its interests, forcing a more pragmatic engagement with everyone concerned.
Read more: Observer Research Foundation (China Strategy), Irrawaddy (Resistance View)
India Recalibrates Myanmar Policy
India has shifted from full support of Myanmar's military junta to a more nuanced approach after four years of civil war. While maintaining dialogue with the junta, India has begun engaging with both Ethnic Armed Organizations and the National Unity Government, particularly after losing control of territories along India's border. The strategy shift is expected to help protect India's interests while improving regional stability.
Read more: Daily Pioneer
Labor Crisis Hits Manufacturing
The garment sector is seeing severe disruption due to widespread labor shortages caused by the Conscription Law. Factories are reporting 20% production declines as they struggle to recruit and retain skilled workers. Rising living costs and military recruitment pressures have driven many workers to move abroad to look for work. It is being said that the industry has regressed to conditions seen 15 years ago, with workers alternating between agricultural and factory work.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Tourism Numbers Plummet
Foreign tourist arrivals dropped to 470,000 in January-September 2024 from nearly 900,000 in 2023. The decline is a natural result of the ongoing civil war, high airfares, and security concerns. Multiple nations have issued travel advisories against visiting Myanmar. The junta is trying to kickstart a tourism revival by targeting visitors from allied nations through relaxed visa requirements, though so far only Chinese and Thai tourists have show notable arrival numbers.
Read more: Mizzima
Chinese Investment in Resources Continues
Chinese companies have increased rare earth mineral extraction from Kachin state, with imports growing 70% to reach 34,241 metric tons in 2023. The exploitation has caused environmental damage in Kachin state, with investigations showing ecosystem destruction and toxic chemical contamination. The military regime is also tying up with Chinese firms to build natural gas infrastructure despite the challenges.
Read more: Asia Financial (Rare Earth), Myanmar Now (Gas Terminal)
Malaysia Cracks Down on Myanmar Migrants
Malaysian authorities say that they are working to increase efforts to detain and deport undocumented Myanmar nationals, focusing on urban areas including Kuala Lumpur, Johor, Penang, and Selangor. Law enforcement is engaged in systematic operations by blocking entire streets or neighborhoods. The policy targeting Myanmar migrants was introduced late last year, forcing many into hiding.
Read more: Myanmar Now
Cross-Border Crime Draws Chinese Response
Chinese authorities have charged 16 Myanmar citizens with murder and telecoms fraud connected to cross-border cybercrime operations in the Golden Triangle region. The suspects are alleged to have forced hundreds of thousands into telecoms scams after luring them across the border. Joint law enforcement efforts have transferred more than 31,000 fraud suspects to Chinese authorities since September.
Read more: South China Morning Post
Conscription Drives Youth Exodus
The junta is still going hard on recruitment under the Conscription Law, with more than 20,000 men recruited in the first five batches. Many recruits are forced into immediate deployment to front lines, where they are most likely to suffer casualties. Reports also indicate forced conscription of minors, while families in Yangon are reporting demands for ransoms up to 2 million Kyats to free detained youth. Those unable to pay face military service.
Read more: Mizzima (Recruitment), Mizzima (Ransoms)
Health Crisis Emerges on Thai Border
Thailand's Public Health Ministry has put an emergency operations centre in place for Tak province to contain a cholera outbreak spreading from Myanmar's Shwe Kokko area. Two hundred cholera cases and two deaths have been reported in Shwe Kokko, while Mae Sot district has recorded two cases. The junta has not issued an alert regarding the outbreak.
Read more: Mizzima
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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