Myanmar 20250107: Paramount, Creative, Chatty
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
How Sanctions Are Targeted and Evaded
Military Control Continues to Erode
Independence Day Amnesty Draws Skepticism
Power Crisis Deepens in Major Cities
Prison Conditions Worsen for Political Detainees
China Expands Myanmar Rare Earth Operations
Humanitarian Crisis Grinds On
Military Industrial Complex Under Threat
Czech Support for Democracy Movement Shifts
ICC Prosecution Efforts Move Forward
India Continues to Navigate Local Politics
Food Industry Looking for Chinese Market Access
New Cybersecurity Law Tightens Digital Control
How Sanctions Are Targeted and Evaded
Analysis by The Sentry group is showing that targeted sanctions on arms, teak, and gems sectors show promise, while wider restrictions risk harming civilians. They say that better enforcement, civil society collaboration, and integration with diplomatic efforts are needed if sanctions are going to be effective to pressure the regime into changing its ways. Sanctions against the junta, while impactful in reducing military procurement by 30%, are not completely effective as the military circumvents restrictions via proxies, false certifications, and regional banks, shifting trade from Singapore to Thailand, among others. Civil society plays a role in identifying evasion tactics, but enforcement remains underfunded and (at best) patchy, undermining effectiveness. The Sentry is calling for more unified global sanctions, improved enforcement, and better collaboration with local organizations to close loopholes and put even more pressure on the regime.
Read more: Mizzima (Summary), Insight Myanmar (Podcast)
Military Control Continues to Erode
The military junta now controls less than one-third of Myanmar's townships, with resistance forces and ethnic armies controlling 44% of the territory. The Three Brotherhood Alliance and other ethnic armies have captured several important areas including Lashio and several townships in Shan state. The Arakan Army controls 13 of 17 townships in Rakhine state, while ethnic rebels hold about 85% of Chin state territory.
Read more: RFA (Territory Control), Irrawaddy (Military Losses)
Independence Day Amnesty Draws Skepticism
The junta released 5,864 prisoners, including 180 foreigners, during Independence Day celebrations on Saturday. While benefiting some political prisoners, more than 20,000 civilians remain detained. The release appears calculated to try and create legitimacy for the military government while maintaining systems of repression. Former leader Aung San Suu Kyi remains imprisoned, serving a 27-year sentence.
Read more: VOA News (Release Details), Irrawaddy (Analysis)
Power Crisis Deepens in Major Cities
Myanmar's largest cities continue to face severe power rationing, with electricity limited to eight hours a day. Production has dropped by more than a third since the coup. Current daily demand is 4,400 megawatts, but production reached only 1,701 megawatts on January 5. Even Naypyitaw, the military's stronghold, is facing increased blackouts in a dire indication of the scale of the problem.
Read more: RFA
Prison Conditions Worsen for Political Detainees
Twenty-two political prisoners died in Myanmar prisons during 2024 allegedly due to inadequate healthcare. A nationwide survey of 41 prisons shows systemic issues including emergency treatment delays and a widespread substandard of care. At the present time, 42 female political prisoners are being detained, including 35 mothers with children and 7 pregnant women.
Read more: BNI Online (Prison Deaths), Shiawaves (Prison Conditions)
China Expands Myanmar Rare Earth Operations
China’s increased rare mineral imports have been accelerating for some time, but a recent report shows that exports from Myanmar rose by a hefty 70% as of a couple years ago, as Chinese industry expanded mining operations in the Kachin region. Myanmar currently accounts for a bit more than a tenth of global rare mineral production, but lacks refining capabilities. China processes these materials domestically, strengthening its position in resource supply chains.
Read more: India.com
Humanitarian Crisis Grinds On
More 3.5 million people have been displaced by armed conflict in Myanmar, with one-third being children. OCHA warns of a "grim" outlook for 2025, citing unprecedented humanitarian challenges including escalating conflict, disasters, and economic collapse. Fifteen million people face acute food insecurity.
Read more: Prothom Alo (Displacement), Mirage News (Crisis Overview)
Military Industrial Complex Under Threat
The Arakan Army's advances have exposed several Myanmar weapons factories to potential attacks. Twenty-five weapons facilities, mostly situated between the Arakan Mountains and Irrawaddy River, are seeing increased vulnerability. Seven ordnance factories, including missile production facilities, are now within striking distance of AA forces.
Read more: Irrawaddy
Czech Support for Democracy Movement Shifts
Interestingly, the Czech Republic's traditional support as European advocate for Myanmar's pro-democracy movement (rooted in the early 1990s friendship between Vaclav Havel and Aung San Suu Kyi) may be flagging. While historically maintaining strong ties with opposition forces, recent signals are towards increased engagement with junta representatives. The shift is happening as global attention generally is being more focused on other international crises.
Read more: East Asia Forum
ICC Prosecution Efforts Move Forward
Amnesty International is saying that there has been progress in holding Myanmar's military accountable for atrocities. The ICC prosecutor filed a request for an arrest warrant for General Min Aung Hlaing, who oversaw both the 2021 coup and Rohingya expulsions. The move is a step toward international accountability, but the path between here and actual consequences is likely to be long and rocky.
Read more: Amnesty (Legal Action)
India Continues to Navigate Local Politics
India has generally been on the sidelines so far in the Myanmar conflict, but as security challenges are causing more problems in its northeastern states, it has become more proactive. While continuing to maintain support for the junta, India has started to engage with some pro-democracy groups. Cross-border ethnic ties are making the situation a little more complicated, particularly affecting Manipur, Mizoram, and Nagaland.
Read more: Eurasia Review
Food Industry Looking for Chinese Market Access
More than 1,600 Myanmar food processing companies have applied for certification from China's General Administration of Customs. The applications, submitted between December 2021 and January 2025, seem to have been accelerating of late as the government puts in effort to expand trade relationships in order to generate much needed foreign currency.
Read more: GNLM
New Cybersecurity Law Tightens Digital Control
The military government implemented a cybersecurity law criminalizing unauthorized VPN use, with penalties including imprisonment and fines. Digital platforms are now required to save user data for three years and share it with authorities on request. The law restricts online gambling and gives authorities broad powers over digital communications.
Read more: Developing Telecoms (Law Details), Mizzima (VPN Ban)
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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