Myanmar 20250211
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Opposition Grows Against Planned Elections
U.S. Freezes Aid and Refugee Resettlement
Singapore Firm Suspends Trading in Fuel Probe
Thailand Cracks Down on Myanmar Scam Centers
Humanitarian Havoc as Junta Escalates Airstrikes
Junta Sees Losses, Resistance Advances
Mizzima Tries to Report, Junta Tries to Silence
Editorials: Resistance, Collapse, & a Sham Election
International Support and Diplomacy
Warden Throws Female Detainees Into Solitary
S’pore Asks Employers to Shun Myanmar Migrants
Opposition Grows Against Planned Elections
The junta is pressing ahead with plans for a 2025 election, claiming global support, but international election experts, pro-democracy forces, and many foreign governments are dismissing it as a sham. A joint statement by election watchdogs and democratic organizations rejects the vote, due to repression, political arrests, and lack of media freedom. The junta, however, insists that foreign engagement, including ties with China, Russia, and some ASEAN members, legitimizes its electoral efforts. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG) and ethnic resistance groups have launched missions to obstruct the vote, arguing it will only deepen the crisis. With major powers refusing recognition and resistance groups actively opposing it, the election is set to be one of the most contentious in Myanmar’s history.
Read more: International IDEA (Joint Statement), ANFREL (Election Rejection), The Irrawaddy (Junta’s Global Claims), Mizzima (NUG Resistance), Irrawaddy (Call for boycott)
U.S. Freezes Aid and Refugee Resettlement
The United States has put a stop to its Myanmar refugee resettlement program with Thailand and suspended nearly $40 million in aid for human rights, democracy, and media programs. The decision, part of cuts under the Trump administration, has stopped refugee admissions and forced NGOs to scale back operations, leaving thousands of refugees in limbo. The suspension also affects funding for healthcare, education, and humanitarian aid, putting vulnerable communities at risk. Thai officials are scrambling to fill gaps in refugee healthcare, while civil society organizations warn that the aid freeze is going to undermine years of democratic progress in Myanmar.
Read more: VOA News (Refugee Program Halted), The Irrawaddy (Impact on Thai Camps), BNI Online (Aid Cuts)
Singapore Firm Suspends Trading in Fuel Probe
Singapore-based Interra Resources Ltd has stopped trading on the Singapore Stock Exchange after an investigation revealed that it supplied millions of barrels of oil to Myanmar’s military junta. Reports from activist group Justice for Myanmar and investigative platform Finance Uncovered allege that Interra’s Myanmar joint venture provided 2.3 million barrels of oil, valued at more than $150 million, to the junta-controlled Myanma Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE). The fuel, refined for military use, is linked to airstrikes and attacks on civilians. While not subject to international sanctions, Interra is facing scrutiny from Singapore regulators. Will be interesting to see how Singapore (and the world) manages corporate accountability in sanction-evading jurisdictions.
Read more: The Irrawaddy (SGX Inquiry), Finance Uncovered (Investigation Findings)
Thailand Cracks Down on Myanmar Scam Centers
Thailand has cut off electricity, internet, and fuel supplies to Myanmar border towns in an attempt to disrupt scam syndicates operating in the region. The crackdown has resulted in strong protests from residents of Myanmar, with demonstrators in Myawaddy calling for border closures and a boycott of Thai products. While large criminal operations have already been able to find alternative power sources, smaller businesses and households are struggling. The junta, under pressure, has also blocked fuel shipments to Myawaddy to disrupt scam networks but has also worsened shortages for locals. Former Thai PM Thaksin Shinawatra insists that power will only be restored once scam centers have been eliminated, and Thai authorities are tightening enforcement against fuel smuggling. ASEAN’s response has been mixed, with Laos continuing to supply electricity to Myanmar, undermining Thai efforts.
Read more: The Diplomat (ASEAN Response), Nation Thailand (Border Protests), Irrawaddy (Thaksin's Stance), Bangkok Post (PTT Oil Suspension), RFA (Junta Blocks Fuel), Bangkok Post (Residents Protest)
Humanitarian Havoc as Junta Escalates Airstrikes
The rate of airstrikes has increased nationwide, with more than 8,000 attacks reported since the coup. Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing defended the military’s actions, blaming ethnic armed groups for infrastructure damage, even as reports confirm that civilian areas—schools, hospitals, and religious buildings—are being heavily targeted. Forced conscription has also become more common, with mass arrests being reported in Mandalay. The UK has pledged additional humanitarian aid, as nearly 20 million people now need help as the conflict grinds on.
Read more: Mizzima (UK Aid Expansion), Mizzima (Airstrike Casualties), BNI (Mandalay Arrests)
Junta Sees Losses, Resistance Advances
Resistance forces continue to gain ground, capturing several important military positions across multiple fronts. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA) has taken control of the junta’s Artillery Battalion 366 headquarters in Bhamo, leaving the strategic 21 Military Operations Command (MOC) under siege. If it falls, the remaining bases are expected to collapse quickly. The Arakan Army continues its push in western Myanmar, capturing townships and a regional command. Fighting near the India-Myanmar border has become more intense over the past couple weeks, with thousands of civilians displaced.
Read more: Irrawaddy (Western Front Collapses), Irrawaddy (Kachin Advances), The Wire (Border Clashes)
Mizzima Tries to Report, Junta Tries to Silence
Mizzima, an independent news outlet, is still covering Myanmar’s crisis despite the military junta’s efforts to shut it down. A new book, Resisting Military Rule in Burma (1988-2024), tells the story of how Mizzima started in exile, grew into a major media force, and how it was pushed back underground after the 2021 coup. Its journalists now primarily work from border areas, but some also work in secret inside the country. Even with funding cuts and government threats, Mizzima continues to document the conflict and push for press freedom.
Read more: Mizzima
Editorials: Resistance, Collapse, & a Sham Election
Four years after Myanmar’s coup, the junta faces a growing armed rebellion, economic freefall, and international skepticism over the upcoming election. More than 6,000 civilians have died, 3.3 million are displaced, and famine is looming. The military now controls less than a quarter of the country and has to rely on brutal airstrikes, forced conscription, and election manipulation to keep power. Despite this, activists and human rights organizations continue documenting abuses and pushing for international accountability. China and ASEAN states maintain limited engagement, but many fear the election will be a tool to entrench military rule rather than restore democracy.
Read more: NZZ (Civil War Impact), The Hindu (Political Stalemate), The Guardian (People’s Defiance), Mizzima (Human Rights Efforts)
International Support and Diplomacy
Japan’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs met with Myanmar community members to discuss democratic restoration, reaffirming Japan’s commitment to humanitarian aid and dialogue. ASEAN is still trying to figure out how to solve the Myanmar’s puzzle, proposing conditional participation and recognizing the National Unity Government as a legitimate actor.
Read more: Mizzima (Japan Meetings), Lowy Institute (ASEAN Response), Yale News (Call for Support)
Warden Throws Female Detainees Into Solitary
At Daik-U Prison in Myanmar’s Bago Region, 13 female political prisoners have been placed in solitary confinement under orders from the newly appointed warden. Rights groups say the order is an assertion of power rather than a response to an inmate dispute, as prison authorities claim. Conditions remain dire, with inadequate food and medical care. More than 300 women, including pregnant detainees and mothers, are currently being held there. Advocates continue working to expose human rights violations inside Myanmar’s prison system.
Read more: Mizzima
S’pore Asks Employers to Shun Myanmar Migrants
Singapore’s Ministry of Manpower has advised employment agencies to consider workers from other countries due to Myanmar’s growing travel restrictions and conscription laws. The junta in Myanmar has tightened exit controls for draft-age citizens, putting a serious crimp in labor migration. Many job seekers are unable to leave, affecting Singapore’s labor market, especially in construction, housekeeping, and healthcare. With more than 200,000 Myanmar migrants already in Singapore, the policy shift may impact businesses reliant on Myanmar’s workforce.
Read more: Irrawaddy
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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