Myanmar 20250218
Mekong Memo Myanmar Weekly: Business, politics, finance, trade & legal news.
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Here is this week’s edition of the Mekong Memo for Myanmar.
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Headlines:
Sanctions Miss The Mark
Resistance Movement Splits Over Governance
Energy Crisis as Industrial Zones Face Blackouts
Border Trade Disruption Hits Local Economy
Rare Earth Supply Chain in Turmoil
USAID Cuts Threaten $107.5M in Projects
Elections Planned Despite Limited Control
Refugees Flee by Sea
Sustainable Farming Gives Way to Survival
Death Probe Challenges Rights Accountability
Sanctions Miss The Mark
Western sanctions have frozen a billion dollars in reserves, yet Myanmar's military maintains somehow has continued to maintain control of the financial system. The junta bypasses restrictions through partnerships with firms in China, Singapore, and Thailand. New evidence shows sanctioned entities simply shift operations to alternative channels when the heat comes down on them, rendering current economic measures largely ineffective.
Read More: The Jakarta Post (ASEAN accountability), Mizzima (Economic resistance strategy), The Irrawaddy (Financial sanctions strategy), International Policy Digest (Sanctions ineffectiveness)
Resistance Movement Splits Over Governance
The Chin National Front is working through internal challenges as rival factions debate post-revolution governance structures. Military victories against the junta continue while competing visions for representation threaten unity. The split impacts regional stability and business operations in Magway and Sagaing regions.
Read More: Myanmar Now (Resistance Group Splits), Frontier (Chin Resistance Tensions)
Energy Crisis as Industrial Zones Face Blackouts
Industrial zones now operate on just four hours of electricity each day. Foreign-owned facilities have largely stopped operations while many local factories have resorted to expensive diesel generators. The Brotherhood Alliance's territorial gains are disrupting energy infrastructure, including Chinese-invested pipelines, making economic instability worse, at least for the time being.
Read More: Myanmar NOW (Resistance Territorial Gains), The Irrawaddy (Junta Survival Tactics), Myanmar NOW (Economic Resilience Struggle)
Border Trade Disruption Hits Local Economy
Thailand's crackdown on border scam operations has sent fuel prices soaring to 135 baht per liter (~$4). The export ban on 11 essential products is disrupting legitimate businesses while criminal enterprises seem to be able to adapt more easily through alternative supply chains. Chinese businesses are leaving smaller border towns, reshaping the local economic landscape.
Read More: Irrawaddy (Scam Exodus), The Diplomat (Scam Crackdown), Mizzima (Local Impact)
Rare Earth Supply Chain in Turmoil
Chinese-brokered negotiations are coming along with production disruptions in the rare earth sector. Mining costs have jumped past 70,000 yuan per metric ton. Separation enterprises say that they are having to engage in production cuts as conflict continues despite diplomatic efforts.
Read More: SMM (Rare Earth Market), The Irrawaddy (Peace Talks), Mizzima (Military Airstrikes)
USAID Cuts Threaten $107.5M in Projects
A funding freeze will impact 34 projects across democracy, human rights, and humanitarian sectors in Myanmar. The suspension affects $22 million in aid, $36 million for agriculture, and $10 million for health initiatives. Local organizations are trying to figure out how to cut staff and reduce services as funding uncertainty continues.
Read More: Mizzima
Elections Planned Despite Limited Control
The military junta remains steadfast in its resolve to hold 2025 elections while controlling only 30% of territory. The 2008 Constitution ensures military power through guaranteed parliamentary seats and ministry control. ASEAN remains divided on election monitoring as junta territorial losses mount.
Read More: Mizzima (Junta's Election Manipulation), RSIS (Election Legitimacy Quest), The Irrawaddy (Election Uncertainty)
Refugees Flee by Sea
Maritime refugee attempts rose 80% in 2024, while conflict has forced as many as 80,000 new refugees into Bangladesh since November. Power struggles between military forces and the Arakan Army have trapped civilians in the crossfire. Regional nations are starting to struggle with mounting humanitarian pressures as the number of dangerous sea crossings rises.
Read More: Mizzima (Refugee Sea Exodus), Deutsche Welle (Repatriation Challenges)
Sustainable Farming Gives Way to Survival
Farmers in Chin State have abandoned sustainable practices in preference for slash-and-burn cultivation as market access collapses. Transportation costs and security risks make commercial farming nonviable. Local leaders are warning of famine within a decade as soil degradation accelerates.
Read More: bne IntelliNews
Death Probe Challenges Rights Accountability
Thailand's Lawyers Council is investigating allegations of military personnel torturing and killing a Myanmar national in Mae Sot. The case centers on the January death of a 37-year-old volunteer security patrol member named Aung Ko Ko. Fortify Rights has presented some evidence including eyewitness accounts and autopsy findings.
Read More: Myanmar NOW
That’s it for this week… THANK YOU.
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